16 Years Providing Weekly Foresight
The most accurate predictive letter in computing and telecommunications,
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By Jon Myers
Register now for the SNS Future in Review Conference. Join us for our 11th year, when FiRe will again be held at the beautiful Montage Laguna Beach Hotel, May 21-24:
See "Upcoming SNS Events" below for details on all SNS programs and registrations.
Publisher's Note: It is often said that the average human being literally lacks the ability to comprehend second-order rates of change: straight lines, OK but increasing increases, no. That's too bad, as this is the shape of most human-caused problems. Worse, this shape, representing self-reinforcing problems, gets out of control much faster than do straight-line problems, often ending up in a veritable black hole from which there is no chance of solution.
Another issue most people face in understanding complex problems is quite direct: the solutions are also complex. And, it seems, most people are not very good at understanding, or supporting, solutions that have more than one moving part.
This is exactly the case for solving the problem of Global Warming. Energy-based solutions alone (e.g., reduce coal burning, when possible) won't do it. We know from past work by the CTO Design Challenge results at FiRe that even a single set of answers isn't enough: there will need to be a set of transition ("good enough") solutions put into practice immediately, followed by a second set of solutions that are better yet....