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PIVOTING INTO CHAOS II

On October 31 of this year, we sent out a Special Alert titled "Pivoting into Chaos," which, at members' request, we made available to the public. That Alert can be found here:

 https://www.stratnews.com/recent/mode/show/issue/2025-10-31/

Today, only a few weeks later, we are compelled to send a follow-on Alert, as an unfortunate result of the quick passage of events from warning to hard proof of the reality of this sudden destabilization. 

Specifically, in the first Alert we suggested that a confluence of trends was leading to a sudden increase in systems increasingly going chaotic, from transport to cloud to cyber to infrastructure shutdowns. This confluence included: 

• Open-sourcing of LLMs by Meta and then others, immediately picked up by China and CRINK;
• Huge new botnets with 40M+ nodes, available on the dark web
• A massive increase in discoveries of zero-day vulnerabilities being unearthed by these LLMs, sometimes in the hundreds per day
• The rise of agentic AI, enabling autonomous LLM behavior
• An increase in Russian sabotage,  such as the DHL cargo-plane bomb attempts in the UK, therefore likely moving beyond the EU to the US
• An expansion of the Chinese / CRINK "all fronts war" against the West, using the above trends and tools

On November 13, Anthropic published a study titled "Disrupting the first reported AI-orchestrated cyber espionage campaign," in which the firm detailed the discovery of a state actor (which they believe to be China), for the first time, doing exactly this.  You can read it here:

Disrupting the first reported AI-orchestrated cyber espionage campaign Anthropic

The report announces that the Chinese (named "with high confidence") used the firm's own Claude code tool, targeting "large tech companies, financial institutions, chemical manufacturing companies, and government agencies." The report continues: "We believe this is the first documented case of a large-scale cyberattack executed without substantial human intervention."

I strongly recommend members read the entire report; it comes in two versions, for tech and non-tech readers, so everyone can benefit. Here is what matters:

China and perhaps other nations has released agentic-driven LLMs , of US invention, by jailbreaking them (so much for the whole idea of guardrails) to do illegal things, discovering zero-day exploits, hacking into large companies and government agencies, and stealing data. In doing so, the systems were operating without human interaction for about 80% of these activities.

At this point, I would like to suggest that we:

• Stop worrying about OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and all the fear-mongering around AGI smokescreens and start worrying about this very real and dangerous problem
• Stop worrying about Quantum Supremacy and the end of the encrypted world as we know it and start worrying about this very real and dangerous problem
• Stop worrying about what would happen if China ever "beats" the US in the "AI race" and start worrying about what China and Russia and Iran and North Korea are doing right now, today, with these very real and dangerous tools

As SNS members no doubt noticed, just as with the Covid Wuhan Lab release and subsequent world bio-attack, the US invented the technologies and the Chinese used them to attack. This dynamic is intentional, real, and a deadly serious threat now, not some day in the future. 

If this warning, and its current documentation, are true and real, the questions arise: What can be done? Is there a sudden acceleration in the destabilization of the free world today? If so, are there steps that can be taken to arrest it?

I think the answers come in two forms: 

1. What can be done today? There is no simple answer here, since the horse has already left the barn. However, the West should cooperate in using AI to fight AI. I don't have super high hopes that this will have complete success, but it will have to be done, as we enter a period of "Spy vs. Spy" technical one -upmanship without end.
2. What can be done tomorrow and in the future? The West needs to stop waiting for a kinetic war and recognize the All Fronts War that is degrading the economics, systems, and infrastructure that are currently under attack. To that end, free nations need to act in concert not only to oppose attack, but also to do much more to prevent it. This means: blocking access to academic institutions for CRINK members (China's number one ask of Trump in their last trade meeting); blocking visa issuance for CRINK members; greatly reducing trade and its imbalances with CRINK members, since every dollar or euro sent over comes back as a weapon in use; and generally following China's lead in blocking their access to our inventions, money, and media. This means not allowing CRINK misinformation, disinformation, and weaponized software applications into our countries, including the many other tools currently being used in this All Fronts War.  

In the previous Special Alert, I noted that I really, really wanted to be wrong about this. Unfortunately, it now is clear that I was not.  

Please feel free to share these two Special Alerts with everyone you think can help stop this Pivot into Chaos.

Your comments are always welcome.

Mark Anderson
CEO, Strategic News Service