16 Years Providing Weekly Foresight
The most accurate predictive letter in computing and telecommunications,
[Please open the .pdf attachment for best viewing.]
By John Hagel III
See "Upcoming SNS Events" below for details on all SNS programs and registrations.
Publisher's Note: John Hagel is a global expert on technology trends in the enterprise, and when he brings us a new way of understanding the limits imposed by current economic conditions, and how to maximize growth within those limits, CEOs will want to pay attention.
I think John has captured the essence of several trends at once here, ranging from the current R and D-purchase model espoused by large pharma companies, through the Cisco-like acquisition-based models for horizontal movement into markets, and through the newer cooperative models that small and large companies are discovering today. As with Eric Openshaw's piece on capturing talent benefits from outside the organization, John here expands this idea of "Capability Leverage" to aim at the sweet spot in the most-developed abilities of external organizations.
While I expect this may, in times of general economic growth, return at least somewhat to the M&A behaviors of the past, their record is so dubious that members will want to look at John's proposals as long-term solutions. With a 75% average failure rate in acquisitions today, raising access to external capabilities without such risk to finance and culture seems a more intelligent, and prudent, path for corporate leaders to follow.