SNS: FiRe Away: The Second-Order Trends

The STRATEGIC NEWS SERVICE

NEWSLETTER

 

 

The most accurate predictive letter in computing and telecommunications,
read by industry leaders worldwide.

 

SNS Subscriber Edition Volume 12, Issue 16 Week of May 4th, 2009

 

***SNS***

FiRe Away:

The Second-Order Trends

 

 

 

In This Issue

 

 

Feature:

FiRe Away:

Second-Order Trends

 

Upgrades

 

The Invisible Cloak

Becomes Real

De-Globalization Now?

I (Don’t) Spy: Lobbying Trumps American Justice

 

SNS TakeOut Window

Photos of FiRe Past

 

Quotes of the Week

 

Ethermail

 

Upcoming SNS Events & Media Links

 

Executive Postings

 

In Other House News…

 

New Members’ Welcome

How to Subscribe

May I Share This Newsletter?

About SNS

About the Publisher

SNS Website Links

Where’s Mark?

 


“SNS is the only newsletter that I pay for with my own money.”Arthur Hanna, Accenture, in introductory remarks at the International Utilities and Energy Conference in Vancouver, B.C.

 

 

“In the world of technology, Mark is the man!” – Kathleen Wilcox, past CEO, Washington Software Alliance/Washington Technology Industry Association

 

 

“SNS is even MORE relevant and insightful in these turbulent times.”Curtis Wong [creator of Worldwide Telescope; Corbis’ CD-ROMs including “Leonardo da Vinci” and “FDR”; and much more], Microsoft

 

 

“I have been a devoted fan of Mark Anderson for over a decade – this special alert [SNS: ‘Not a Bottom Call, But a Price Call’]is one more example of why” [and] “Great SNS alert – I shared it with my financial advisor and will probably push it out to more folks who need to read your words. I continue to marvel at the scope and breadth of your universe.”

 – Dave Davison, Band of Angels, Silicon Valley

 

 

“Thank you for helping me think differently.”

Karen Radford, President, TELUS Quebec; and Executive Vice President and President, TELUS Partner Solutions; in a note after Anderson’s recent keynote speech at the CRIM Crystal Ball Conference

 

 

“I depend on SNS more than ever now with the economic downturn. Thanks and regards.” – John Baudrexl, Intel Corp.

 

 

To arrange for a speech by Mark Anderson on What Caused the Collapse (and how the financial world really works), How Technology Will Lead the Rebound, or other subjects in technology and economics, email shane@stratnews.com.

 

 

The FiRe Box:

 

   FiRe 2009: “Shaping the Rebound:

      Technology Driving Economics

 

www.futureinreview.com, May 19-22, 2009, Hotel del Coronado, San Diego, California.

 

We are pleased to announce that our opening evening presentation will be “Practical Strategies for Solving the Climate Problem,” by Veerabhadran “Ram” Ramanathan, Victor Alderson Professor of Applied Ocean Sciences; and Director of the Center for Clouds, Chemistry & Climate (C4), Scripps Institute of Oceanography, UCSD.

 

YOU read about Ram’s discoveries on the New York Times front page two weeks ago, one day after our announcement; now come and see him at FiRe.

 

HERE is the agenda, hot off the press. You’ve been to the gadget shows, the bizcard exchanges, and the Celebrity Awe conferences. FiRe continues to differentiate itself as the best, and perhaps only, conference to offer a clear guide forward on where the world is headed and the roles technology will play.

 

 

FiRe 2009 CONFERENCE AGENDA

 

Speaking assignments and agenda items are subject to change.

 

 

Tuesday, May 19th

 

 

2:00pm - 4:00pm

 

 

“Meet the FiReStarters”: Private reception for the BBC, FiReStarters, and FiReSpotters; with Mark Anderson; Sharon Anderson-Morris, SNS Programs Director; and select SNS staff – Coronet Room

 

 

4:00pm - 6:00pm

 

 

Registration Windsor Lawn

 

5:00pm - 6:30pm

 

 

Cocktail Reception with live entertainment (adult partners welcome) – Windsor Lawn

 

 

6:30pm - 6:45pm

 

 

Welcome to FiRe, and Introduction to FiRe Interns and Staff: Sharon Anderson-Morris Windsor Lawn

 

 

7:00pm - 7:10-pm

 

7:10pm - 7:30-pm

 

 

Welcoming RemarksCrown Room

  • Introductions and Appreciations: Sharon Anderson-Morris
  • Opening Remarks: Mark Anderson

 

 

7:30pm - 8:15pm

 

 

Dinner Crown Room

 

8:00pm - 8:45pm

 

 

Dinner Presentation: “Practical Strategies for Solving the Climate Problem”: Veerabhadran “Ram” Ramanathan, Distinguished Professor of Climate Sciences and Director, Center for Clouds, Chemistry & Climate (C4), Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UCSD

 


 

 

Wednesday, May 20th

 

Note: Private test drives in the all-electric Tesla Roadster will be available to all FiRe attendees today, on a first-come basis, with thanks to CEO Elon Musk.

 

 

7:00am - 7:50am

 

 

Breakfast Crown Room

 

 

7:50am - 8:00am

 

 

Welcome to FiRe” – LIVE Worldwide: Mark Anderson Grand Ballroom

 

 

8:00am - 8:30am

 

 

“How the World Really Works, and Why Technology Will Lead the Economic Rebound”: Mark Anderson; hosted by Stephen Evans, Business Daily, BBC World Service

 

 

8:30am - 9:00am

 

 

“Shaping the Rebound: A How-To Guide”: John Hagel III, Director and Co-Chairman, Deloitte LLP’s Center for Edge Innovation; hosted by Bill Phelps, Executive Director, Technology Consulting, Accenture

 

 

9:00am - 9:30am

 

 

“Bandwidth Economics: The Global Rollout”: A conversation with Sol Trujillo, CEO, Telstra; hosted by Larry Smarr, Director, California Institute for Telecommunications and Information Technology (the “FiRe Lab”), UCSD

 

 

9:30am - 10:00am

 

 

Break Courtyard

 

 

10:00am - 10:30am

 

 

Keynote Conversation: Mark Hurd, Chairman and CEO, Hewlett-Packard; hosted by Mark Anderson

 

 

10:30am - 11:00am

 

 

HOTSPOTS I: Five Personal Views of the Future

 

A panel hosted by Stephen Evans, Presenter, Business Daily, BBC World Service:

 

  • Sophie Vandebroek, CTO, Xerox, and President, Xerox Innovation Group
  • Nova Spivack, CEO and Founder, Twine.com, and CEO, Radar Networks
  • Marc Porat, Chairman, Serious Materials, CalStar Cement, and ZETA Communities
  • J.D. Sitton III, President and CEO, Infinia Corp.
  • Bright B. Simons, Coordinator of the mPedigree Network; IMANI-Ghana

 

 

11:00am - 11:30am

 

 

In Search of Economic Redemption”: Bill Janeway, Senior Advisor, Warburg Pincus; hosted by Mark Anderson

 

 

11:30am - 12:00pm

 

 

“Clouds 2.0: Utility Computing for Consumers and the Enterprise”: Amitabh Srivastava, Senior VP, Windows Azure, Microsoft; Russ Daniels, VP and CTO, Cloud Services Strategy, Hewlett-Packard; Rowan Trollope, SVP, Symantec; and Werner Vogels, CTO and VP, Amazon.com; hosted by John Thompson, CEO, Kognitio

 

 

12:00pm - 1:00pm

 

 

Lunch Windsor Lawn

 

 

1:00pm - 1:30pm

 

 

The Future of Wireless Broadband”: A panel with Hugh Bradlow, CTO, Telstra; Scott Richardson, Chief Strategy Officer of Clearwire; Fred Kitson, Corporate Vice President, Motorola; and Chris Pearson, President, 3G Americas; David C. Achim, President and COO, SkyFiber; hosted by Chetan Sharma, President, Chetan Sharma Consulting

 

 

1:30pm - 2:00pm

 

 

“Blast Off! From Launching Private Rockets to the Next Electric Cars”: A conversation with Elon Musk, CEO, Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX) and Tesla Motors; hosted by Mark Anderson

 

 

2:00pm - 2:30pm

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

“Australia’s Role As Asia Rises”: A panel conversation with Chris Hancock, CEO, AARNet Pty Ltd; Simon Hackett, Founder and CEO, Internode Systems Pty Ltd; Adrian Turner, CEO, Mocana Corp.; Phil Scanlan, Australian Consul-General (New York); hosted by Larry Smarr, Director, California Institute for Telecommunications and Information Technology (the “FiRe Lab”), UCSD

 

 

2:30pm - 3:00pm

 

 

CTO Design Challenge – “Water Beyond Tomorrow: Using Technology and Innovation to Provide San Diego (and the World) with Adequate Safe Water for Future Decades”: A panel consisting of world-class technology leaders: Joe Burton, CTO, Cisco; Ty Carlson, Architect, “SiArch Group,” Microsoft; Per-Kristian (Kris) Halvorsen, SVP and Chief Innovation Officer, Intuit; Eric Openshaw, Vice Chairman and U.S. Technology Leader, Deloitte LLP; Henry Tirri, SVP and Head, Nokia Research Center, Nokia; Sophie Vandebroek, CTO, Xerox, and President, Xerox Innovation Group; and Larry Smarr, Director, Calit2 (the “FiRe Lab”), UCSD; hosted by David Brin, Author, Physicist, and Co-Host of TV’s “ArchiTechs” series (Panel to continue at 4pm Breakout and Thursday 3:30pm Breakout; “Solution” session to be presented Friday at 10am)

 

 

3:00pm - 3:30pm

 

 

 

“Weapons-Free Nuclear Power Worldwide”: A conversation with Ambassador Dennis Hays, Thorium Power; hosted by Robert F. Anderson, Director of Tech Transfer and Intellectual Property, Illinois Institute of Technology

 

 

3:30pm - 4:00pm

 

 

Break Courtyard

 

4:00pm - 5:00pm

 

 

Breakouts (Locations subject to change):

 

I. FiRe CTO Design Challenge Working Session: The Challenge Continues – “Water Beyond Tomorrow: Using Technology and Innovation to Provide San Diego (and the World) with Adequate Safe Water for Future Decades”: With Joe Burton, CTO, Cisco; Ty Carlson, Architect, “SiArch Group,” Microsoft; Tom Malloy, SVP and Chief Software Architect, Adobe Systems; Per-Kristian (Kris) Halvorsen, SVP and Chief Innovation Officer, Intuit; Eric Openshaw, Vice Chairman and U.S. Technology Leader, Deloitte LLP; Henry Tirri, SVP and Head, Nokia Research Center, Nokia; Sophie Vandebroek, CTO, Xerox, and President, Xerox Innovation Group; and Larry Smarr, Director, Calit2 (the “FiRe Lab”), UCSD; hosted by David Brin, Author, Physicist, and Co-Host of TV’s “ArchiTechs” series (Panel to continue at Thursday 3:30pm Breakout; “Solution” session to be presented Friday at 10am) CONTINENTAL ROOM

 

II. “Shaping the Rebound”: Moderated by John Hagel III, Director and Co-Chairman, Deloitte Center for Edge Innovation – CRYSTAL ROOM

 

III. “Making Electric Cars for Mass Markets”: Moderated by Elon Musk, Chairman and CEO, Tesla Motors, and CEO, SpaceX – WINDSOR COMPLEX

 

IV. “Australia’s Role As Asia Rises”: A panel conversation, moderated by Phil Scanlan, Australian Consul-General (New York); with Chris Hancock, CEO, AARNet Pty Ltd.; Simon Hackett, Founder and CEO, Internode Systems Pty Ltd; Hugh Bradlow, CTO, Telstra; and Adrian Turner, CEO, Mocana – GARDEN ROOM

 

 

5:00pm -7:00pm

 

 

Meet the FiReStarters: Exhibition with cocktails and hors d’oeuvres – Grand Ballroom

 

 

 

7:00pm - 8:30pm

 

 

Global Film Debut: The Cove, winner of the 2009 Sundance Film Festival Audience Award: With documentary filmmaker Louie Psihoyos, Executive Director, Oceanic Preservation Society

 

 

 

 

Thursday, May 21st

 

 

7:00am - 7:55am

 

 

Breakfast Crown Room

 

 

8:00am - 8:30am

 

 

HOTSPOTS II: Five Personal Views of the Future

 

A panel hosted by Stephen Evans, Presenter, Business Daily, BBC World Service:

 

  • Josh Wolfe, Managing Partner, Lux Capital
  • Connie Wong, CEO, Vidiator
  • Balan Nair, SVP and CTO, Liberty Global Inc.
  • Jim Butler, General Manager, Communications Sector, Greater China, Microsoft
  • TBA

 

 

8:30am - 8:55am

 

 

“Finding Solutions to Current Global Economic Challenges”: Ira Kalish, Director of Global Economics, Deloitte Research; hosted by Scott Foster, Sr. Analyst, HSBC Securities (Japan) Ltd.

 

 

8:55am - 9:30am

 

 

FiReStarters I: Introduction by Sharon Anderson-Morris, SNS Programs Director

 

Hosted by Stephen Evans, Presenter, Business Daily, BBC World Service:

 

  • Complete Genomics: Aaron Solomon, VP, Business Development
  • Tigo Energy: Sam Arditi , CEO
  • Rearden Commerce: Patrick Grady, Chairman and CEO
  • Avatar Reality: Jim Sink, VP, Business Development
  • American CareSource: David Boone, President and CEO
  • TTTech Computertechnik AG: Georg Kopetz, Member, Executive Board

 

 

9:30am - 10:00am

 

 

“Infrastructure 2.0: The Coming Network Revolution”: A panel discussion with Doug Gourlay, VP, Data Center Solutions, Cisco; Erik Giesa, VP, Product Management and Product Marketing, F5 Networks; Richard Kagan, VP Marketing, Infoblox; and Mark Thiele, Director, Business Operations for R&D, VMware; hosted by Greg Ness, Senior Director, Infoblox

 

 

10:00am - 10:30am

 

 

Break Courtyard

 

 

10:30am - 11:00am

 

 

“The Global Unveiling of the U-MovementTM: Accelerating the U.N. Millennium Development Goals Through Social Media”: Kamran Elahian, Chairman and Co-Founder, Global Catalyst Partners; hosted by Larry Brilliant, President, Skoll Urgent Threats Fund, and Senior Advisor to Jeff Skoll

 

 

11:00am - 11:30am

 

 

The Mercantilists:

 

“What the West Doesn’t ‘Get’ About China”: Sidney Rittenberg Sr., Rittenberg Associates Inc.; and

 

Japan: The Real Asian Tech Tiger”: Scott Foster, Senior Analyst, HSBC Securities (Japan) Ltd.;

 

hosted by Russ Daggatt, Founding Partner, Denny Hill Capital

 

 

 

11:30am - 12:00pm

 

 

Latin America:

 

“Mexico’s Future: Business vs. Narcotics”: A conversation with Ricardo Salinas, Chairman, Grupo Salinas; and

 

“Venezuela’s Future: Living with Chavez”: A conversation with Nelson Ortiz, former President, Caracas Stock Exchange; and David Brillembourg, President, The Brilla Group;

 

hosted by Stephen Evans, Business Daily, BBC World Service

 

 

12:00pm - 1:00pm

 

 

Lunch Windsor Lawn

 

 

1:00pm - 1:30pm

 

 

“Assessing the N1H1 (‘Swine Flu’) Pandemic: What to Expect for the Next Few Years”: Larry Brilliant, President, Skoll Urgent Threats Fund, and Senior Advisor to Jeff Skoll; hosted by Alan Smith, Founder and CEO, Vesta Health Systems Inc.

 

 

1:30pm - 2:00pm

 

 

One Cloud Serving Many Platforms, Applications, and Devices”: A panel with Per-Kristian (Kris) Halvorsen, SVP and Chief Innovation Officer, Intuit; Noam Ziv, VP, Engineering, Qualcomm; Henry Tirri, SVP and Head, Nokia Research Center, Nokia; and Mario Dal Canto, Chairman and CEO, SIMtone Corp.; hosted by Tom Malloy, SVP and Chief Software Architect, Adobe Systems

 

 

2:00pm - 2:30pm

 

 

“Trends in Global Venture Investment”: Gary Rieschel, Founder and Managing Director, Qiming Venture Partners (Shanghai); Niall Davis, Partner, aeris CAPITAL AG (Zurich); Michael Pfeffer, Managing Partner, Kolohala Ventures (Hawaii); and Jeb Terry, President, Aberdeen Investment Management (Dallas); hosted by Rick LeFaivre, Venture Partner, OVP Venture Partners (Seattle)

 

 

2:30pm - 3:05pm

 

 

FiReStarters II

 

Hosted by Stephen Evans, Presenter, Business Daily, BBC World Service:

 

  • SkyFiber Inc.: David C. Achim, President and COO
  • Smaato Inc.: Ragnar Kruse, Founder and CEO
  • Blue Lava Technologies: Henk Rogers, Co-Founder and Chairman
  • ClearFuels Technology Inc.: Eric Darmstaedter, CEO
  • SIMtone Corp.: Mario Dal Canto, Chairman and CEO
  • Attensity Group: Ian Hersey, Global CTO and EVP, Products
  • Vesta Health Systems Inc.: Alan Smith, Founder and CEO

 

 

3:05pm - 3:30pm

 

 

Break Courtyard

 

 

3:30pm - 4:30pm

 

 

Breakouts (Locations subject to change):

 

I. FiRe CTO Design Challenge Working Session: The Challenge Continues – “Water Beyond Tomorrow: Using Technology and Innovation to Provide San Diego (and the World) with Adequate Safe Water for Future Decades”: With Joe Burton, CTO, Cisco; Ty Carlson, Architect, “SiArch Group,” Microsoft; Tom Malloy, SVP and Chief Software Architect, Adobe Systems; Per-Kristian (Kris) Halvorsen, SVP and Chief Innovation Officer, Intuit; Eric Openshaw, Vice Chairman and U.S. Technology Leader, Deloitte LLP; Henry Tirri, SVP and Head, Nokia Research Center, Nokia; and Larry Smarr, Director, Calit2 (the “FiRe Lab”), UCSD; hosted by David Brin, Author, Physicist, and Co-Host of TV’s “ArchiTechs” series (Solution to be presented Friday at 10am plenary session) – CONTINENTAL ROOM

 

II. “Fixing Healthcare”: Alan Smith, Founder and CEO, Vesta Health Systems Inc.; Noam Ziv, VP, Engineering, Qualcomm; David Boone, President and CEO, American CareSource Holdings; and Aaron Solomon, VP, Business Development, Complete Genomics; moderated by Doug Smith, President, W.D. Smith & Associates – CRYSTAL ROOM

 

III. “Mexico and Latin America’s Near-Term Future”: Ricardo Salinas, Chairman, Grupo Salinas (Mexico City); with Nelson Ortiz, former President, Caracas Stock Exchange; and Marcel Vinay, CEO, Investment Media Group; moderated by David Brillembourg, President, Brilla Group (Miami) – GARDEN ROOM

 

IV. “Lighting the FiRe: Taking Your Company to Global Prominence”: A discussion open to all FiRe participants, including the CEOs of the 12 FiReStarter companies – WINDSOR COMPLEX

 

 

5:00pm - 9:00pm

 

Food and cocktail reception and Special Tour of Next-Generation Visualization and Networking Facilities (the “FiRe Lab”) of the California Institute for Telecommunications and Information Technology (Calit2) at UC San Diego: Hosted by Internet pioneer Larry Smarr, Director of Calit2 – Buses depart promptly at 5:15; meet at the hotel’s main entrance by 5:00

 

 

 

 

 

Friday, May 22nd

 

 

7:00am - 7:55am

 

 

BreakfastCrown Room

 

8:00am - 8:30am

 

 

“SNS Project Inkwell: From Utah to Africa”: Sharon Anderson-Morris, SNS Programs Director and Project Inkwell Africa; with David Engle, Director of Operations (U.S.), Project Inkwell; hosted by Tom Greaves, Chairman, the Greaves Group, and Member, Inkwell Steering Committee

 

 

8:30am - 9:00am

 

 

“Pollution Report on the World’s Oceans”: Roger Payne, Founder and President, Ocean Alliance; hosted by Cynthia Figge, Co-Founder, EKOS International and EkoHub

 

 

9:00am - 9:30am

 

 

“Whale Wars: Filming and Fighting Illegal Whalers in the Antarctic”: Paul Watson, President and Founder, Sea Shepherd Conservation Society; hosted by Roger Payne, Founder and President, Ocean Alliance

 

 

9:30am - 10:00am

 

 

Looking Further”: A conversation with Brenda Cooper, Science Fiction author; hosted by Glen Hiemstra, Founder and Owner, Futurist.com

 

 

10:00am - 10:45am

 

 

FiRe CTO Design Challenge – “Water Beyond Tomorrow: And the Solution Is – ”: Conclusion, with Joe Burton, CTO, Cisco; Ty Carlson, Architect, “SiArch Group,” Microsoft; Per-Kristian (Kris) Halvorsen, SVP and Chief Innovation Officer, Intuit; Eric Openshaw, Vice Chairman and U.S. Technology Leader, Deloitte LLP; Henry Tirri, SVP and Head, Nokia Research Center, Nokia; and Larry Smarr, Director, Calit2 (the “FiRe Lab”), UCSD; hosted by David Brin, Author, Physicist, and Co-Host of TV’s “ArchiTechs” series

 

 

10:45am - 11:05am

 

 

“Documenting Lushootseed, Through Its Last Living Speakers: A Foresight Foundation Project”: A conversation with Jay Miller, Vice President, Lushootseed Research; hosted by David Engle, Director of Operations (U.S.), SNS Project Inkwell

 

 

11:05am - 11:30am

 

 

“Your Turn: The Next Five Years”: A group conversation with Mark Anderson

 

11:30am - 12:00pm

 

 

Closing Comments and Summary: Mark Anderson

 

Great thanks to Joe Sterling of Sterling Insights (http://sterlinginsights.com) for providing his scribing services throughout the FiRe conference.

 

 

 

“A great lineup of truly inspiring people, both onstage and off.”

 

– Esther Dyson, past Editor, Release 1.0, CNET Networks

 

 

“There’s nothing like it, and that’s no exaggeration.”

 

Dan Gillmor, Author, “We the Media: Grassroots Journalism by the People, for the People

 

 

“From FORTUNE’s perspective, this was a great investment. Our editors made some great connections, and the event blew my socks off. I came back very energized and have shared that enthusiasm with our publisher.”

 

– Kip Meyer, FORTUNE

 

 

 “Such depth of intelligence. All I could think of as I listened to all the geniuses: ‘This is your brain. This is your brain on FiRe.’”

 

– Jonathan Ewert, CEO, Looksmart

 

 

“They have great food at this conference. The other conferences

 don’t do it right.”

 

– Dave Winer, Scripting News

 

 

“A key differentiator between this conference and others is that

 the attendees here are typically people in a position to actually

 do something to effect a change.”

 

– Ian Sandy, Shell Oil

 

 

If you want to meet and hear Hewlett-Packard CEO Mark Hurd, perhaps the most successful technology CEO at work today, come to FiRe 2009. AND we’ve added some new names to the list (for a complete list, go to www.futureinreview.com and click the Thought Leaders tab):

 

 

Member Price Alert: Use “firecode 2009” when registering to save the usual member discount of $300. Catch it now, before it slips away –

 

Bring a Friend, Save Over $2,000: Upon registration, you will receive a Friendcode to sign up someone (non-SNS member) in addition to yourself. When you register a friend, on top of on top of your $300 discount, we’ll add a year of Premium SNS – what David Kirkpatrick of FORTUNE calls “the best technology newsletter” – to your own account, at an $895 value, AND give your friend One Thousand Dollars Off his or her registration fee. Total savings: $2,195.

 

As in previous years, our interns will be available to help you arrange private meetings with fellow speakers and participants or with the global business press, including the Financial Times, the Economist, the Wall Street Journal, many well-known bloggers, and our media partner, the BBC World News and its 150 million audience.

 

Register now at: www.futureinreview.com .

 

» FiRe Away: Second-Order Trends

 

Next week, we’ll be packing up to take off for Future in Review 2009, which is less than two weeks from now. I remember being concerned, when we started FiRe, that it be properly differentiated from other conferences. Today, seven years later, this issue has melted away. Today, even as the world is populated with a seemingly endless parade of new conferences, they all fit into a few molds: gadget meetings, celebrities on-script, panels for sponsors, PowerPoint nightmares.