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***SNS*** Special Alert: The New Global Landscape:
“Mark: I ran across this quote a few days ago and thought of you…
‘Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.’ – Niels Bohr
Obviously Niels didn’t know you.”
Paul Grey COO & VP Bus Dev Qualnetics Bellingham, WA
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The New Global Landscape: Sooner Than You Thought
After watching various forces and trends pick up speed in the aftermath of the 2007 collapse, we are suddenly in the midst of a wrenching global change, and it isn’t exactly the one everyone has been preparing to face.
Most of the world has been gearing up for a new economic, political, and military landscape dominated by a monolithic China and surrounded by cowed and greedy partners. Proof of China’s view on this comes in a variety of ways, but perhaps the most blatant is China’s warning to leaders of all European nations this week not to attend the Nobel Peace Prize ceremony.
This is beyond over-reach, and shows a warped vision from inside a country which is at once too grandiose, and dangerous to others.
While much of this “yesterday” landscape trend continues, the backlash to this proposed system is already so strong that it is the global response which is shaping the mid-term.
SNS members know that we are looking at two major drivers on the economic stage, in addition to the rise of new consumers and providers in Asia.
First, we have a trade realignment process resulting from an ongoing Currency War, a term apparently coined in these pages, at least during recent times, and now on the cover and front page of every business periodical. This pits free-market countries against the mercantilist model nations: Japan, South Korea, and China.
Second, we have a trade realignment process resulting from the recognition that the protection of Intellectual Property is in the long-term self-interest of every country except the mercantilists. This sets up a similar set of alliances, with a nuanced difference in internal weighting.
Third, we have a military/political balance trend, initiated as China continues its naval expansion, and represented by a more belligerent Chinese attitude regarding old island and sovereignty claims in the South and East China Seas.
Finally, we have a willingness on China’s part to go beyond future options trading and the forward purchase of commodities, already pushing global pricing higher, to use pricing and trade as instruments of military and political policy. If you don’t release the Chinese captain who rammed your Coast Guard vessels, China says to Japan, then we cut off all of your rare earth metals and destroy your consumer electronics industry.
The U.S. has reviewed these trends, in different departments (State, Defense, Treasury), and seems to have come out with a concerted effort to unite them in time. Here is the result:
The result of all this activity seems clear, not because of U.S. intent, which is often easily thwarted or miscalculated, but because of the rather clear alarm of other nations, which want fiscal stability and military protection.
China is increasingly facing a world fully aware of its model and tactics, and words no longer matter. Huawei was rejected by the U.S. yesterday in its bid to sell to Sprint, on military and security grounds. It may also be because of its history of IP theft.
What do these alliances look like?
On the currency side, it’s clearly Japan and China vs. the world. Even South Korea, host of the G20, has come along with Geithner’s proposal, leaving Japan twisting in the wind. These are the original currency manipulators, and it has been nothing less than comical to read Japanese complaints of others’ efforts on this score in recent days.
While Germany properly castigates the U.S. Fed for profligate moves toward hyper-inflation with its new $600B Quantitative Easing program, even Europe and Brazil are on board in general with the idea that currency manipulation is a really bad idea.
As this argument gains heat, the Chinese will end up being isolated on the issue. Wen Jia Bao’s publicly stated fear that millions of laborers will go jobless if he plays by world rules, cannot be taken as anything but ironic, as other world leaders have watched millions of their own jobs move to China as a result of currency intervention by China.
On the IP side, we see the U.S., India, Britain, Australia, Canada, Germany (usually), and the Nordic countries, joined by Brazil and Chile, vs. China, Japan, and South – i.e., those who invent and protect, vs. those who steal inventions.
On the military side, we see the ASEAN world turning to the U.S. for protection against the 19% compound annual growth rate of the Chinese military budget. One Chinese official last week complained about other countries worrying about “ship-building and expansionist plans” – a perfect description of his own country today. This group would include most of the ASEAN countries and Japan and South Korea, India, the U.S., Australia, New Zealand, NATO.
And then comes the wild card: Russia. The Obama administration is midway through its “reset” project, thus far with some apparent success, in re-establishing a Reagan-era alliance with Russia. If this continues successfully, despite the recent mid-term U.S. elections, then China will be justified in its age-old feelings of a global plan for containment.
The difference, of course, is that China will have brought all of this on itself, a nuance it is not expected to see nor understand.
This rearrangement in global trade and political and military alliances promises to erase the old WWII and Cold War maps, and, after half a century, to replace them with maps based upon new interests and fears.
And it is all happening much faster than most would have expected.
I will be discussing these changes this week at FiReGlobal : West Coast with Michael Copeland of Fortune magazine. I look forward to seeing you there.
Your comments are always welcome.
Sincerely, Mark R. Anderson CEO
FiReGlobal : West Coast
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SNS is the most accurate predictive letter covering the computer and telecom industries. It is personally read by the top managers at companies such as Intel, Microsoft, Dell, HP, Cisco, Sun, Google, Yahoo!, Ericsson, Telstra, and China Mobile, as well as by leading financial analysts at the world’s top investment banks and venture capital funds, including Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch, Kleiner Perkins, Venrock, Warburg Pincus, and 3i. It is regularly quoted in top industry publications such as BusinessWeek, WIRED, Barron’s, Fortune, PC Magazine, ZDNet, Business 2.0, the Financial Times, the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, and elsewhere.
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Mark Anderson is CEO of the Strategic News Service. He is the founder of two software companies and of the Washington Technology Industry Association “Fast Pitch” Forum, Washington’s premier software investment conference; and has participated in the launch of many software startups. He regularly appears on the CNN World News, CNBC and CNBC Europe, Reuters TV, the BBC, Wall Street Review/KSDO, and National Public Radio programs. He is a member of the Merrill Lynch Technology Advisory Board, and is an advisor and/or investor in OVP Ventures, Ignition Partners, Mohr Davidow Ventures, the UCSD Calit2 Laboratory, the Global Advisory Council of the mPedigree Network (Ghana), SwedeTrade, The Family Circle (Europe), and the Australian American Leadership Dialogue.
On November 11th, Mark will host the second annual FiReGlobal : West Coast Conference, at the Fairmont Olympic Hotel, in Seattle. On December 9th, he will be hosting the sixth SNS Annual Predictions Dinner, at the Waldorf=Astoria Hotel, in New York. On January 21st, he will share his predictions at the annual TAG predictions event in Bellingham, at Whatcom College.
Copyright 2010, Strategic News Service LLC. “Strategic News Service,” “SNS,” “Future in Review,” “FiRe,” and “SNS Project Inkwell” are all registered service marks of Strategic News Service LLC.
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