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_________ Recommended Reading Produced this week,
"Breaking Through" The 15th annual Future in Review conference October 10-13 - Park City, Utah
One of the high points of my year involves taking a road trip in an open car with my good friend Larry Smarr. Larry runs Calit2, an amazing institute at UC San Diego ("Qualcomm Institute") and Irvine, which we've both started calling the "FiRe Lab," and we use these trips to share as many ideas per hour (or per minute) as possible. These may include topics such as the overall theme for our Future in Review conference, who we should invite to speak on what topics, what exactly we should pick as the subject for this year's CTO Design Challenge, and whether space is really empty. Larry's suggestion for this year's FiRe theme was simple. To best illustrate it, here's a scan of a drawing he shared with me over a meal:
It's Larry's view - which I share - that we're experiencing a rather large number of century-scale transformations in technology, based on current breakthroughs, and that these are both important and rare. We landed on the theme for this year's FiRe soon thereafter: "Breaking Through: On a Century Scale." The sketch above is an example, over the last 600 years, of how long (in rough terms) it may have taken to move from one energy technology to the next. While we impatiently work as a planet to move to renewables, for example, we should realize how long the prior transformations required and appreciate the scale of the change to which we've committed. This week's discussion is not an agenda for FiRe 2017 (which will be coming shortly), but is intended to flesh out this theme. It's easy to become at least slightly jaded about, and therefore perhaps a bit tone-deaf to, the many innovations that one reads about daily. But it's worthwhile, I believe, to step back and look at the forest instead of the trees, noting the major transformations affecting civilization on a century scale and the breakthroughs that are enabling them. Here, then, are a few; no doubt there are many others, and I'd encourage members to share them with us for everyone to consider. At FiRe, we tend to call this "Elon's World," in honor of member Elon Musk's vision for the complete transformation of energy supplies into renewables, mostly fed through electricity, and supported by decentralization of the grid. While we all see the pieces of this change happening, it certainly is proceeding much faster than prior energy restructurings. Among the impacts of this global shift are: A. Not destroying the planet through global warming B. Changing all forms of transport (see below) C. Decreasing the world's reliance upon - and massive financial support for - the most long-term violent cultures on the planet (yes, Middle East, that means you) D. With that decline in support, perhaps some decline in Islamic wars and terrorism We're all waiting for the electric car to transplant the Internal Combustion Engine (ICE); the Economist even ran an August cover story on the subject. In some ways it will take way too long, but in others it's just around the corner. Given the century-long story behind ICE, moving to all-electric (or hybrids) will take much shorter, perhaps as little as 20 to 30 years. It's difficult to appreciate the huge impact of this change, too. How many jobs and companies are involved in today's car supply chain, worldwide? How many will survive the transition ? (Some will.) How much money is involved in the car and truck industry today? Why trucks? It's already well-known that Tesla is working on electric 18-wheelers, and the economics of driverless trucks is so compelling that the UK has modified laws to help put it out front as a test bed. How many people are employed as truck mechanics, in the truck supply chain, or as drivers? And then there's the recent report of a Tesla electric pickup truck being market-tested in, of all places, Wisconsin. Thought that one was still years away? (We'll have Tesla with us at FiRe again this year.) Meanwhile, the Tesla Model 3 is going into production overdrive, with China on its heels, using the transition to electric cars to leapfrog all of the entrenched US (and German, and Japanese) makers. Smart move. Think the Chinese Communist Party will use state interference with the lithium battery supply chain to overtake the majors? Absolutely. (We'll take a look at lithium futures at FiRe - something you won't see anywhere else in the world.) We know Elon is building multiple GigaFactories around the world, starting this year; but where does the lithium come from? Of course, Henrik Fisker (a wayward competitor) and his Chinese friends just announced using supercapacitors, made possible by - you guessed it - graphene, to avoid the battery issue altogether. Full charges in minutes instead of hours, and no fire risk. At the same time, Tesla now is testing cars with sunroofs made of solar cells, so that - like some new experimental planes being designed by Boeing and others - it can charge itself during use. Ah, you didn't know that we already have electric planes? From the Valley to Seattle, the game is on. Some are even VTOL (vertical take-off and landing). What does it mean to be experiencing the end of both the ICE and petroleum economics at the same time? Whatever it is, it's a century-scale event. It's a rather clich'd truism that medicine is going through a revolution, no doubt on a century scale. We've written about it extensively, and celebrate new discoveries at FiRe every year (which we'll do again this year, with multiple speakers and panels). But even so, it's difficult to appreciate the scale of the changes in medicine, in both theory and practice. Here are a few: A. The microbiome and its co-evolved effect on wellness and disease B. 3D imaging and its integration into all of medicine, including robotic surgery C. Laser and ultrasound as therapy tools, often magnified and focused through other procedures and chemicals D. Increased focus on Nutritional Microanalysis, an area first opened by SNS, so that both researchers and practitioners can use personal inputs (food, drink, air) on a biochemical scale for diagnosis and treatment E. The advent of Augmented Immunity in treating cancer F. The connection between auto-immune diseases and cancer G. Understanding health states from a whole-systems perspective A. Lunar Colonization. You may not like the idea, but everyone and their brother are going to be setting up lunar colonies in the next few years - if for no other reason than to tag this space base on the way to something bigger. But the politicians and military brass will no doubt react instinctively to China, for instance, having one. Think of Antarctica, on a planetary scale. B. Commercial Exploration and Exploitation. Before Elon Musk, it would've been difficult to project the rate of change in costs and schedules for getting into space. In fact, until he came along, the basic name of the game was to reduce competition and increase costs and profits, with government and a few global corporations (also government-funded) almost exclusively the source of funds. Well, that was then. By working to take rates down by a factor of 10x, and by increasing launch schedule frequency, SpaceX has led the way into a new era in space development, showing that a private company can do what no government (understandably) could. While all of us get ready for the November launch of the world's most powerful rocket, the Falcon 9 Heavy, we should prepare for the idea that microsats will become affordable to cities, towns, schools, and small companies. Meanwhile, scores of private companies are launching Earth imaging efforts and new communications systems, all through their own satellite arrays. The days of Teledesic-like constellations are just now really beginning. Space has just moved from being a world away to being our "away world." C. Habitats. Yesterday, it was all about the International Space Station, even after we all ran out of things to do with it. Today, led by firms such as Bigelow, we're getting ready to create a variety of habitats, hotels, and travel vehicles. D. Space Tourism. I have a friend who's gone to space at least twice (how weird does that sound?), at a cost of around a quarter-million dollars each time. But soon, thanks to SNS members Paul Allen and Burt Rutan, as well as Sir Richard Branson and many others, we're going to see a cascade of new opportunities for Mom and Dad to go into space for a wee while, see the edge of the planet, and come back to share their experiences over a beer and something on the barbie. E. Interplanetary Travel. Elon is now planning on following NASA into interplanetary travel, with an unmanned flight to Mars using the Falcon 9 Heavy, and then, likely sooner than any of us believe, a manned flight. I have only one word for the magnitude of this change: Wow. Will we really become (or return to being) an interplanetary species? I guess so. F. Military Madness. We've had killer satellites for a while, and secret satellites, and GPS systems, and - well, who knows what's up there, since it's supposed to be secret? But the advent of massive access to space, with improved lift and microsat and weapons and computers and communications and targeting and - well, hold on. Personally, I just can't wait until Iran and China help North Korea up into high orbit. What idiots. VI. The Big Picture: A Systems View During my interview at Impact Hub in Salt Lake City last week, the final question asked by host Sharon Anderson Morris was what major beneficial use of technology I was most excited about. I told her it would be the use of computing to help humans see the world in terms of whole systems, and see the unintended large-scale effects of our individual, or local, actions. This week, talking with Larry Smarr about FiRe and new breakthroughs, he made the same comment with regard to medicine: that doctors of the future, instead of being siloed by their specializations, will become systems experts, aware of all of the parts of our nutrition and health state in assisting us. It seems we agree again. While each of these changes is interesting on its own merits, taken together we have more than the sum of the parts. Indeed, there are a good number of century-scale breakthroughs, more than humans have ever faced (or created) in all of history, and all happening right now. What could be more exciting? Again: no doubt there are many more than I've listed here, and no doubt we'll capture a good number of them at FiRe 2017. And then there's the collective effect of them all happening at once. I don't think anyone has that outcome set figured out yet, but it will be unique. Perhaps, finally, the cost of being intentionally ignorant, or of intellectual dishonesty, will become too great for any politician or corporate leader to bear, as the amount and speed of damage becomes colossal. Or maybe the current trend will continue.
Your comments are always welcome. Sincerely, Mark R. Anderson CEO
To arrange for a speech or consultation by Mark Anderson on subjects in technology and economics, or to schedule a strategic review of your company, email mark@stratnews.com. We also welcome your thoughts about topics you would like to suggest for future coverage in the SNS Global Report. For inquiries about Partnership or Sponsorship Opportunities and/or SNS Events, please contact Sharon Anderson Morris, SNS Programs Director, at sam@stratnews.com or 435-649-3645.
"We are pleased with the enormous support we have gotten in the last few weeks. The Enigma team has decided to open the Pre-Sale to the public. The hard cap for this presale will be 20 million. Please note that tokens will be calculated and distributed based on how much the pre sale raises." - From a bogus message sent to potential investors in the crypto currency Enigma, created by MIT crypto experts - right after their website was hacked - and the bad guys were able to divert about $500k of investor money into their own accounts; quoted in theregister.co.uk. OOOOps. (See "Takeout Window.")
"This paper contributes a novel method for low-cost, covert physical sensing and, by doing so, surfaces new privacy threats. We demonstrate how a smartphone and portable speaker playing music with embedded, inaudible signals can track multiple individuals' locations and activities both within a room and through barriers in 2D space. We achieve this by transforming a smartphone into an active sonar system that emits a combination of a sonar pulse and music and listens to the reflections off of humans in the environment. Our implementation, CovertBand, monitors minute changes to these reflections to track multiple people concurrently and to recognize different types of motion, leaking information about where people are in addition to what they may be doing." - From the abstract of a scientific paper, at http://musicattacks.cs.washington.edu/activity-information-leakage.pdf And: "Our implementation, CovertBand, monitors minute changes to these reflections to track multiple people concurrently and to recognize different types of motion, leaking information about where people are in addition to what they may be doing," [the paper explains]. - Ibid.
"EMP is the most asymmetric threat there is in terms of a single weapon taking out large categories of infrastructure. It's a lot easier to achieve, since you don't need reentry capabilities." - Dr. George Baker, former leader of the Defense Nuclear Agency's EMP program; in theregister.co.uk.
"A North Korean EMP attack is extremely credible. No reentry is required and a low-yield weapon could produce a significant impact on the electrical grid. The grid is designed to be resilient to single failures but not multiple simultaneous failures." - Retired Air Force Captain Thomas Popik, principal investigator for the above group. Ibid.
"In the summer of 2015, Zuo asked Yan to locate and purchase several advanced ICs [integrated circuits] made by Xilinx Corp, which had military applications, including radiation tolerance for uses in space. Yan then asked a US individual to locate the Xilinx ICs and sell them to Yan." - US Department of Justice charging papers naming three Chinese nationals - Xianfeng Zuo, Jiang Yan, and Daofu Zhang - in an attempt to steal US chip designs; quoted in theregister.co.uk.
"Analysts are focused on margins. I am focused on growth." - New Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi; quoted by Reuters.
"We wish and pray to God that there will be a US military intervention. We see it as a help, as an SOS." - Venezuelan lawyer Mriu Nieves; quoted in USA Today.
"The collapse of Venezuela , the dictatorship, will drive more illegal migration, corroding our borders, burdening our economies. The collapse of Venezuela will ultimately endanger the well-being of all who call the Western Hemisphere home. We cannot let that happen, we will not let that happen." - US VP Mike Pence. Ibid.
"Whole Foods, half price." Anonymous irreverent source at the Beach Palace Hotel.
"North Korea was always a State criminal, sheltered behind sovereignty, and now they've moved this into cyberspace." - James A. Lewis, a cybersecurity expert at Washington's Center for Strategic and International Studies; quoted on Timesofmalta.com.
"There was a lot of money spent on Predix. They are going to tighten the grip and ensure there's a return." - A former senior finance executive at GE who worked with company official Flannery; quoted by Reuters.
"So, John, I want you to know, this is my view. I want tariffs. And I want someone to bring me some tariffs. I know there are some people in the room right now that are upset. I know there are some globalists in the room right now. And they don't want them, John, they don't want the tariffs. But I'm telling you, I want tariffs." - President Trump, in a private White House meeting involving US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, Trade Advisor Peter Navarro, National Economic Council Director Gary Cohn, and then-White House chief strategist Steve Bannon, addressing new Chief of Staff John Kelly; quoted by CNBC, out of Axios. It suddenly looks a bit more like INVNT/IP: 10, Gary Cohn and Jared Kushner: 0. Now let's fix the burgeoning trade imbalance, caused by illegal activities.
"You have given insufficient attention to the growing threats to the cybersecurity of the critical systems upon which all Americans depend, including those impacting the systems supporting our democratic election process." - From a mass resignation letter by seven members of the National Infrastructure Advisory Council (NIAC), addressed to Trump.
And then we have what easily may be Trump's best, and shortest, speech. Wonder who wrote this eloquent piece? I'm thinking Lighthizer: <http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4830046/What-Trump-repeatedly-shouted-economic-advisers.html>
Hacking the Cloud? Those who were able to join us for our recent third annual SNS Predictions : West event will have heard Oracle CEO Mark Hurd describe various aspects of cloud security, from dollars spent (vs. corporate data centers) to the use of encryption, so that theft would be further thwarted. Not surprisingly, Mark didn't want to go further into his favorite types of encryption - something I privately applaud, given that I also care about security. But there are a few patterns circulating about other companies' cloud security which I thought I'd share this week. All are circumstantial, and all very interesting, for those watching this major issue. 1. Amazon. We received (hearsay) anonymous information this week that made me ask to hear it repeated. Amazon, we were told, does not keep its own crown jewel IP on AWS (Amazon Web Services). Rather, these sensitive bits are stored on a separate, stand-alone net. What???? Great for security, perhaps, but - if true, what does it tell you? 2. The Google Titan chip. Google released a new chip this week in its bid to make a bigger dent than its current single-digit market share in cloud services for enterprise use. (See "Takeout Window" for more.) Keep in mind, Google probably has the largest cloud in the world, but is a distant competitor compared with Amazon and Microsoft. The chip has one function: security. Its job is to prevent booting if any changes at all are made to the hardware. You know, the kind of thing a Chinese agency would do to backdoor a chip out of Asia. But here's the question: why would Google pick security as the top competitive feature in its cloud? And why is it so worried about back doors? And then we have: 3. "ElcomSoft, the Russia-based maker of forensic software, has managed to find a way for crime investigators to access the data stored in Apple's iCloud Keychain, if Apple ID account credentials are available - " This quote from The Register opens a rather large door onto the question of Apple's cloud security. It continues: " - the keychain is a remote copy of the password vault that's optionally available to users of iOS and macOS devices. If enabled, it can store copies of credentials for Safari websites, for services like Facebook, Twitter and LinkedIn, and for applications like Calendar, Contacts, and Mail, along with credit card numbers and Wi-Fi network data. "ElcomSoft's Phone Breaker 7.0 has gained the ability to access and decrypt iCloud Keychain data, under certain circumstances."
Phone Breaker 7.0 screen (click to enlarge) "'That way, that will be able to get just a couple of files from suspect's computer, and get all passwords and credit card numbers with no need to have anything else (credentials, trusted device etc), and with no traces left,' an Elcom researcher said. "Apple's iCloud Keychain has elicited interest from security researchers because it's such a tempting target. In March, Apple fixed an iCloud Keychain vulnerability (CVE-2017-2448) that had been disclosed to the company by Alex Radocea, cofounder of Longterm Security, two months earlier." - theregister.co.uk
Phishing with GoT China's APT17 cyber theft crew is using stolen Game of Thrones episodes as a phishing lure for downloading the 9002 remote-access Trojan. Here's a screenshot:
Source: Bleepingcomputer.com
More Bad News From the Dark Web A recent story from the security vendor Clearsky showed a new level of risk for users of top-line websites, and even for the usual criminal minds ("kiddie types") doing fake websites, by using tools (state-sponsored?) that do more than they suspect. A bit more of the story from Clearsky: More qualified vendors discussed how to keep fake websites under the radar for the greatest amount of time while script-kiddie types fail to grasp the difference between between simply duplicating a website and developing a fake from scratch, Clearsky discovered. Some of the vendors, duplicate the website and make basic "cleaning" i.e. basic changes in HTML and content, it adds.
Source: Clearsky blog post Phishing website pricing table. Two different types of workers are required for fake website creation: the developers and the designers. Some developers work with third-party designers when a design or change in the websites is required. The average price for banking login pages is about $60. Those who just duplicate the original site charge about $20-30 and those who develop the fake website from scratch ask for $50 or more, with some vendors quoting up to $200." - theregister.co.uk
"[Google's] clearly worried about supply chain." - University of York techie Arthur Clune. Google designed Titan's hardware logic in-house to reduce the chances of hardware backdoors. The Titan ecosystem ensures that production infrastructure boots securely using authorized and verifiable code.
Source: Google The custom Titan chip and how it fits inside Google's purpose-built server. In addition to enabling secure boot, Google has developed an end-to-end cryptographic identity system based on Titan that offers a root of trust for varied cryptographic operations in its data centers. The system's strong identity gives Google a non-repudiable audit trail of any changes done to the system. Tamper-evident logging capabilities are there to help identify actions performed even by an insider with root access. - theregister.co.uk (See "Upgrades" for more on this topic.) Less an Enigma Than a Door This message was posted by the MIT team after hackers fooled the investment community and diverted funds and messaging into their own accounts.
So, how's that encryption coming? Think I'll pass on this one.
Re: "SNS: Trump vs. Xi: Causes and Outcomes in the US/China Era" and "SNS: Pattern Recognition Interview at the NGA"
Very well said, with excellent graphs and data to support. Ken [Kenneth Goldman
Subject: Interactive Timeline: Everything We Know About Russia and President Trump - BILL MOYERS
Mark, Stephan Schwartz wrote: "Attorney Steven Harper and Bill Moyers have done the country a real service. The complex and interlocking matrix of deceit and corruption in the Trump operation that has brought us to this point is very hard to sort out and arrange in a comprehensible way; it covers years and dozens of people. Harper has done that for us and, in making it comprehensible, he has revealed the true depth and breadth of the problem we face as a country, and I am speaking here only about the Trump Russian connection. One can only wonder what else there is? Moreover, why didn't any of the news organizations dig this out during the campaign? Why didn't the Republican Party? I urge you to click through and scroll down this sordid tale. I suspect you will be as dismayed as I was." http://billmoyers.com/story/trump-russia-timeline/ Interactive Timeline: Everything We Know About Russia and President TrumpExplore our updated, comprehensive Trump/Russia timeline - or select one of the central players in the Trump/Russia saga to see what we know about them.August 14, 2017 When it comes to Donald Trump, his campaign and their dealings with Russia past and present, sometimes it's hard to keep track of all the players without a scorecard. We have one of sorts - a deeply comprehensive timeline detailing what actually happened and what's still happening in the ever-changing story of the president, his inner circle and a web of Russian oligarchs, hackers and government officials. Since first launched in February 2017, the timeline has grown to more than 400 entries - and we will continue to add updates each week. What have reporters and investigators already uncovered and made public? What are the connections and patterns to be found? Review the timeline to see.
Kevin Kelley
Subject: Petya Attack on Ukraine impacted Maersk by $200M - $300M Mark and Evan, <https://siliconangle.com/blog/2017/08/16/shipping-giant-maesrk-says-notpetya-attack-cost-300m/> FYI Greg Ness
Mark and Evan, Serious damage both times. Asymmetrical. Hard to avoid in crowded sea lanes. US destroyer collides with merchant ship near Singapore
Maritime Mystery: Why a U.S. Destroyer Failed to Dodge a Cargo Ship
And:
Subject: Re: 2nd US destroyer - cargo ship collision Mark and Evan, Even worse: "Callender said Naval leadership also needs to reassess its training regimen in a manner that focuses more on the human element. He said younger sailors and officers are now too reliant on technology to navigate the sea. "'We've lost in the Navy the ability to train our sailors and crew to use manual backup methods when technology fails,' he said. 'It's not just training how to fight - that's a key piece we need to be able to do - but it's making sure we're taking the time to go back to the basics to ensure our sailors and our pilots can operate without relying on the technology, because what happens if the technology fails?' "Citing media reports the USS McCain may have wrecked after a cyber attack on its GPS systems, Callender said such an assault wouldn't have mattered if the Navy had properly trained its crews." Navy Collisions May Have Killed More U.S. Troops in 2017 than War in Afghanistan
Scott Foster
Scott, You know, if you used the malware you got into the navy's computer systems with Lenovo computing solutions to scramble their radar and gps it might look a lot like one ship after another being taken out of action while the captains (and therefore the American navy) look increasingly incompetent to the world. Total hypothetical, but two is two too many after no incidents for years . . . Evan Anderson P.S. Yes. They really need to be fully cyber-capable and prepared. They must know that the most likely asymmetric threat they face is cyber. For a few thousand bucks you can take a multi-billion dollar naval fleet and simply . . . turn it off. So very much catching up to do.
Subject: Qualcomm President Derek Aberle to step down as licensing battles continue - Mark, QUALCOMM president resigns: <http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/business/technology/sd-fi-derek-qualcomm-20170824-story.html>
Subject: "China is going to hit a wall" Mark, Very interesting interview with Anne Stevenson-Yang: https://www.fuw.ch/article/china-is-going-to-hit-a-wall
Shannon Smith
Please visit www.stratnews.com/insideSNS for:
"Breaking Through" Register now for FiRe 2017
Returning to the beautiful In Park City, Utah www.futureinreview.com/register 
* On October 10-13, Mark will be hosting the 15th annual Future in Review conference at the Stein Eriksen Lodge in Park City, Utah. To register for FiRe 2017, go to www.futureinreview.com. * On November 15, he will be keynoting the Radar Co. annual conference in Stockholm, and on November 16 he will be speaking to members of the Founders' Alliance there. * And on December 7, he will be hosting the SNS Annual Predictions Dinner in New York, at the Lotte Palace Hotel.
In between times, he'll be watching the ocean from the west coast of Vancouver Island, looking for resident humpback whales, and inspiration for better ways to do advanced computing.
"Strategic News Service," "SNS," "Future in Review," "FiRe," "INVNT/IP," and "SNS Project Inkwell" are all registered service marks of Strategic News Service LLC. ISSN 1093-8494 | |
