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We look forward to returning to our FiRe roots on the beautiful California coast, October 8-11, 2019, at The Lodge at Torrey Pines in La Jolla. Early 2019 speakers and moderators include:
Introduction As SNS members are aware, for the past 13 years we've hosted our Annual Predictions event at our New York Dinner, in the first week of December. There were a couple of difficulties with this arrangement: first, it was set up before moved our FiRe conference from May to October, so suddenly we were confronted with two major events back-to-back. Second, the first Thursday night of December is likely the worst night of the year to get New Yorkers out of their office Christmas parties to talk about the future. For those reasons, we have moved our Annual Predictions event to be combined with the Technology Alliance Group predictions event in Bellingham, Washington, which I've been keynoting for over a decade, and which took place this past week. We'll continue to do an annual event in New York, but with a slightly different focus and in a late-April calendar slot that both balances our company events calendar and should better suit the social pace of that city. We'll have a video of our 2019 Predictions event shortly, and will share that with members as well. ______ Of all the years we've been publishing annual predictions, this is certainly one of the most volatile. For that reason, I hope that these comments and calls are particularly helpful to our members. Some of you will notice that I've chosen to take the format for this issue directly from the outline of my Bellingham talk last week. This allows me to preserve the flow of ideas accurately and will enable those who wish to follow the video and writing, which are different in content but the same in structure, side by side. Cynics may also note that it is a bit easier on the author. In this issue, we'll first look at the Economic and Technology Landscapes on which these predictions will have to depend. Following these backgrounders are the Top Ten Predictions for 2019. It is rare that, in a given year, a single economic issue dominates a great portion of the strategic landscape, but this is such a year. China is now crashing, economically speaking, although you wouldn't know it from the information that escapes the world's most censored and repressive regime. (And you thought that was North Korea, right?) Worse, for those seeking a particularly accurate understanding of Chinese economic internals: I have not found a single media outlet that comes even close to grasping the issues behind such comprehension. Whether carping on about the trade war or taking the Dem or GOP party lines, or even taking the Chinese Communist Party line as put forward in Western media by their propaganda teams (which are very effective), it's all just noise, as far as I can tell. Members will recall our recent Global Report in which I suggested that, essentially, the only thing standing between the Chinese economy and the abyss was the property bubble, and that when it burst the real crash would begin. The fundamental erosions preparing the crash go back to the 2000-2003 era, as the new model swung into full effect; and then to early 2015, our initial collapse call, when the Party first realized it had lost economic control and began to panic. Which leads to our first looks at the economic landscape: Theme: China Crashes As Inventing Nations Wake Up Seeing the World in Three Easy Pieces: A. Cars. It used to be that we watched chip sales as the leading economic indicator, then computer sales, then smartphone sales. Today, car sales are what matter. B. Energy. We're witnessing one of the great transitions of the century, as the types of energy we use, and the companies and countries that provide them, go through a radical shift. C. Infrastructure. From 5G and its knock-on effects to fast trains, drones, smart cities, air taxis, and The Boring Co., we're rebuilding our infrastructure to new standards for new uses. A Special Focus on China
A Special Focus on the US The Economy is not the Market (note to President Trump) The US economy will remain strong compared with other nations during 2019. The US:
Other Countries
a) Corporations are relocating and re-evaluating strategic plans. b) VCs - just when they were allocating all their money to China. Oops! Sequoia. c) Startups: That Shanghai office is suddenly a serious liability. d) Investors: Everyone wants out, from Hong Kong citizens to foreign direct investors. e) The Seattle (and other West Coast) real estate market; Well, that call worked.
A year from now, we'll review these predictions and see how they turned out. Meanwhile, members can look back at our predictions for last year in the "Upgrades" section below, together with the accuracy ratings we've assigned them. Finally: in the spirit of the New Year, we are opening this first issue of 2019 as shareable by members with others. Your comments are always welcome. Sincerely, Mark R. Anderson CEO
To arrange for a speech or consultation by Mark Anderson on subjects in technology and economics, or to schedule a strategic review of your company, email mark@stratnews.com. We also welcome your thoughts about topics you would like to suggest for future coverage in the SNS Global Report. For inquiries about Partnership or Sponsorship Opportunities and/or SNS Events, please contact Berit Anderson, SNS Programs Director, at berit@stratnews.com.
"[We are] shocked at the results of the investigation by prosecutors, at a time when competitors are intensifying their technological rivalry." - Legal spokesperson for Samsung Display, after prosecutors charged that 11 people stole folding OLED technology secrets and sold them to China; quoted on regionweek.com.
"The cell phone recovered by SIS staff revealed the user was a highly skilled person capable to [sic] access secure apps and coordinate the use of stolen credit card information with the use of an aircraft drone to introduce contraband into the institution. The potential for greater crimes [sic] opportunities are obvious, i.e. escape, introduction of firearms, etc. Although [prisoner Vision] was only equipped with a smartphone, he proved that he is more than capable to disrupt and circumvent the security of the institution and present a clear danger to the community in general." - From a Bureau of Prisons report on hacker/prisoner Vision using drones to drop stolen goods into the prison yard; quoted on Thedailybeast.com.
"In 2016, following the acquisition of EE, we began a process to remove Huawei equipment from the core of our 3G and 4G networks, as part of network architecture principles in place since 2006. As a result, Huawei have not been included in vendor selection for our 5G core. Huawei remains an important equipment provider outside the core network, and a valued innovation partner." - Spokesperson for British Telecom; quoted by Reuters. Translation: After the UK security services issued a report saying that BT had put the entire national backbone at risk by using Huawei, and after the US and other Five Eyes nations barred Huawei from their backbones, BT finally got the message.
"It's a large-scale concern because of how broad it is and how pervasive this access is. What we've watched is after they've gotten into managed service providers, it's our belief that they haven't been completely pushed out. That is strategic high ground. We view it as the platform the Chinese are using for whatever they need. If they get into a managed service provider, then they can go to any of the customers of those providers. So we are really concerned. And that's why you are seeing the government saying, we've got to deal with it, push them out, make sure they don't have that toehold." - Rob Joyce, a senior official at the National Security Agency, in an interview in October; quoted in the Wall Street Journal.
"I think too much is at stake for Xi Jinping. He desperately wants a settlement." - Willy Lam, a politics specialist at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, on why Huawei CFO Meng's Vancouver arrest will not derail trade talks; quoted on Adelaidenow.com.
"Sorry to be a broken record but I will say this again: any foreign and especially US technology firm that has supply chain reliance on China needs to be deep into planning for reducing that reliance, no matter how hard, painful and expensive such a shift would be. Frankly boards of directors of those firms are negligent at this point if they are not pushing the company to do this planning. "I have seen speculation that China may retaliate by arresting a US tech executive. That would certainly be explosive, but I am not sure Beijing would do that without a very clear legal case as it would undermine the massive propaganda campaign the Party has undertaken to portray the PRC as open for foreign business and as the defender of the global trading system. However, if I were a US tech executive I would delay travel to China for a bit or go on a vacation if based there..." - Bill Bishop, author of the newsletter Sinocism, in those pages.
"We commissioned this research to explore how prepared businesses are to continue operating during an attack. The number of high profile breaches has meant that 2018 has become the year where businesses are left wondering what more they can do to protect themselves, how to remain resilient, to keep operating and minimise customer damage. Our research highlights the fact that senior IT bosses want the UK government to direct more attention, money and resource to supporting their businesses in the face of cyberattacks." - SNS Member Ray Rothrock, CEO of RedSeal; quoted on Itportal.com.
"'I've worked for nonprofits, governments, companies,' he said, adding that they all need to be held accountable. 'Accountability is high on my list. Governments need to be more accountable. Congress should be more accountable.'" - SNS Member and Google Internet Evangelist Vint Cerf, on employee protests; quoted in The Mercury News.
"It is necessary to significantly increase the financial penalties for IPR infringements to better exert the deterrent effect of the law." - Shen Chunyao, deputy head of the NPC Constitution and Law Committee, when presenting the draft to lawmakers; quoted in Qatar's The Peninsula.
"Should we pursue evicting China from the WTO?" - Quip by one of Trump's economic advisers, to the BBC; quoted on Channelnewsasia.com.
"If your conclusion is that China taking over all of our technology and the future of our children is a stupid fight, then you are right, we should capitulate. My view is that's how we got where we are. I don't think it's a stupid fight." - US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, quoted on politico.com.
2018's Top Ten Predictions and Accuracy Ratings Here are last year's (2018) Top Ten Predictions, with our accuracy ratings and brief comments. The least accurate call appears to be No. 10, regarding Augmented Immunity's impact and acceptance. While this likely remains the most hopeful of all treatments for cancer and a number of other diseases, including those in the auto-immune categories, the current efficacy for these as a family appears to be only in the 20% range, on average. For that reason, it seemed like the call was worth no more than half the points possible. The final result for 2018 ended at 95%, bringing the cumulative total accuracy rate to 95.18% since we began tracking annual predictions in 2006. Your comments on these and the related rankings are welcomed. Please let us know if you think any of these grades are off. ______ Top Ten Predictions for 2018
(Inventing Nations vs. Nation-sponsored Theft of Intellectual Property) This section highlights stories of the week regarding IP theft - or, China CCTV cameras, Chinese spies and an unusual delegation <https://regionweek.com/samsungs-folding-screen-tech-has-been-stolen-and-sold-to-china/> <https://www.newsweek.com/huawei-meng-wanzhou-arrest-iran-sanctions-trade-war-trade-truce-1249012> https://world.einnews.com/article/472121940/sBFzPny63tOAibpr China launches policies to boost economy and ease US tensions https://world.einnews.com/article/472110711/d38BakxOBSZz198J Commentary: From co-evolution to decoupling, a new US-China relationship China said to be mulling new law that would ban forced technology transfers China trade steps seen as good start but leave core US demands untouched <https://www.foxnews.com/science/chinese-stealing-biomedical-research-from-u-s-labs-and-universities> <https://www.theepochtimes.com/nih-calls-out-china-for-violating-research-integrity_2759555.html> Germany BASF says Taiwan investigating intellectual property infringement Company Interest China's fury as arrest shocks the world https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-46490053 Huawei: Meng Wenzau faces Iran fraud charges, court hears "Ideological Soulmates": How a China skeptic sold Trump on a trade war General Interest https://www.massdevice.com/spectrum-dynamics-sues-ge-for-trade-theft/ <https://en.brinkwire.com/news/hacked-eu-cables-reveal-diplomats-anxiety-about-donald-trump/>
When Energy Prices Fell Below Zero For years we've been telling SNS members that energy prices ought to approach zero over time, rather than eating up a large part of global corporate and individual budgets. But when we said this, we were relying on the fact that sun, wind, and water are essentially free, so capture and distribution would be the only costs, and small at that. So this story will likely catch you as unprepared as it did us: Methane output is growing so fast that drillers are trying to give it away. When they can't, they just burn it off into the atmosphere. Here's part of the story: Natural Gas Prices Fall Below Zero In TexasNick Cunningham Surging U.S. oil production in the Permian basin has helped crash oil prices. But the Permian is also home to skyrocketing natural gas production, and output is growing so fast that drillers are trying to give it away for free. When they can't, they just burn it off into the atmosphere. Unlike in the Marcellus shale, where natural gas is the main target, drilling in the Permian is focused entirely on crude oil. Natural gas is a nice bonus that comes along with the oil. But the drilling frenzy in West Texas and New Mexico has resulted in a glut of this associated natural gas. There is a pipeline bottleneck for crude oil, but there is also a shortage of pipeline space for natural gas. The glut has become so bad that next-day prices for gas at the Waha hub in the Permian have plunged to a record low, falling to as low as 25 cents per MMBtu. In some instances, producers have actually sold some gas at negative prices. That means that a company is paying someone else to take the gas off of their hands. On Tuesday, the lowest price recorded was -25 cents/MMBtu (to be clear, that is negative 25 cents), according to Natural Gas Intelligence (NGI). It was the second consecutive day that prices were in negative territory. "That's right, someone was paid to buy gas in the Permian on Monday," RBN Energy LLC analyst Jason Ferguson said, referring to NGI's pricing data. "While we'd like to tell you this was some sort of transient, one-off event that led to a day of dramatically low gas prices, that isn't likely the truth of the matter...."
... Meanwhile, the problem is only getting worse with soaring production in the Permian. The rate of flaring in New Mexico climbed by 2,244 percent between 2009 and 2013. Negative prices for natural gas offers very little incentive for drillers to capture that methane. My thanks to Scott Foster for sharing this nugget with us.
Re: "SNS: Behind 5G" Thanks, Mark, this is very helpful. My favorite paragraph is: "Today, of course, we're about to build out the greatest number of towers / stations ever, with a radiation density that has never been experienced by humans before, with proximity issues that have simply been untested. Once again, for some strange reason, governments and industry have decided that human subjects will be the guinea pigs in this new rollout." The largest and most densely saturated urban markets, with probably the least attention paid to health effects, will be in China. The Chinese will monopolize their own 5G radiation problem, piling it on top of their other environmental and health problems. As long as we do not let them sell 5G equipment in our countries, would there be anything wrong with taking this issue seriously, watching how the Chinese react to it, and being slower and hopefully safer followers? Scott Foster [Author, Stealth Japan
Mark, Hope all is well. Great article on 5g. Let's catch up soon. Jeff Hudson [CEO
Subject: Read this: SuperMicro China Hack. Bloombergs Got It Wrong! Mark, ... and then consider the impact on China's view of the US, government and media. This report is from Smartkarma, an online financial research service for which I also write. Dr. William Keating is a highly experienced senior executive with over 25 years experience in the IT/Semiconductor Industry. The majority of Dr. Keating's career was spent at Intel Corporation where he held senior leadership positions in Europe, the US and Asia from 1992 through 2014. He served as Intel's IT Director for APAC, China & Japan from 2005 through 2014 when he was based in Hong Kong and was responsible for the IT systems (Infrastructure, Networks, Data Centres, ERP, Sales & Marketing systems, Business Intelligence etc. ) for all of Intel's offices & factories through the region. From 1998 through 2005, he was the founder & director of an internal IT Consulting Organisation (IT Flex Services), a 500-person team which remains a core part of the Intel IT Organisation to this day. Dr. Keating's first 6 years at Intel were spent in charge of the Factory Automation Systems (Robotics, Databases, Networks, Servers, Clients etc.) supporting Intel's then state-of-the-art 200mm factory network. Since leaving Intel in 2014, Dr Keating established his own Technology Research & Consulting Company (www.ingenuity.hk) where he focuses on the products, roadmaps & technologies of companies such as Intel, AMD, Samsung, Apple, Micron- as well as the key equipment suppliers to those companies e.g. ASML, AMAT, Canon, Nikon etc. Dr. Keating specializes in niche topics of high significance within the semiconductor industry. These include the future of Moore's Law and in particular the significance of Lithography in maintaining Moore's Law (EUV, SDA, NanoImprint), the role & growth of the GPU in specialised applications such as Deep Learning (Neural Networks) for Voice, Image & Pattern recognition at companies such as Facebook, Google & Baidu. He also holds regular discussions on the future of memory, in particular the rise of 3D NAND and the emergence of new memory technologies such as 3D Xpoint. And: SuperMicro China Hack. Bloomberg's Got It Wrong!EXECUTIVE SUMMARYOn October 4'th last week, Bloomberg published an article alleging that server motherboards manufactured in China by US-headquartered Super Micro Computer, had been compromised by agents acting on behalf of the Chinese government and that the those components found their way into the data centers of high profile clients such as Apple and Amazon. Supermicro, whose stock was delisted from the NASDAQ earlier this month due to accounting irregularities and currently trades OTC, went into freefall with its share price collapsing from $21.40 at the open to a low of $8.59 during midday trading. While Supermicro has since recovered slightly to close at $12.40 on October 5't'h, the revelations triggered a broad sell-off in the technology sector has now persisted for two consecutive days. Asian markets were also not immune, with HK-listed Lenovo down some 25% at one stage the following day on fears of its exposure due to its China-based server manufacturing operations. While the Bloomberg report is both comprehensive and compelling, its claims have been robustly denied [by] Apple, Amazon and Supermicro. In our opinion, while Bloomberg may well have uncovered some disturbing evidence of Chinese cybersecurity activities, we find their conclusions highly suspect on multiple fronts. Firstly, a chip of the complexity required to implement the alleged spy functions would require a minimum of 32 pins and could not be mounted on the motherboard without a complete redesign of the board, something that would be impossible to disguise. Secondly, Supermicro's servers are vulnerable, but by virtue of their own sub-standard security rather than as a result of an elaborate hardware hack of immense complexity and risk. In a nutshell, Chinese hackers did not need to infiltrate Supermicro's supply chain in order to gain backdoor access to their servers. The door was already open with a welcome sign hanging outside. Sorry Bloomberg - you appear to have gotten it wrong!
Scott Foster
Mark and Scott, Don't worry: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FQgjpnr5e2s Russ Daggatt [Founding General Partner
Mark, Scott and Russ, By the way, having looked into William Keating (on a cell at the moment, as a caveat) the best I've gotten is that his website is very odd and his bio is written in very broken English. Smells a lot like a propaganda outlet to me. Who better than an artificial British businessman to defend the fact that absolutely in no way would there ever have been chips planted in circuits distributed in the US and Europe? So trustworthy. I highly doubt that a company that claims to have that expertise has an EA in Hong Kong that doesn't speak English. Evan Anderson [CEO
Re: SuperMicro China Hack. Bloomberg's Got It Wrong! Mark, Evan, and Russ, This is his website. There doesn't seem to be anything wrong with it and his email and phone number can be found under Contact. Under About, he invites you to Contact Today for a Confidential Discussion. The reports listed under Insights have been published on https://www.smartkarma.com, which is where I have read them. Having covered the semiconductor industry in Asia for about 25 years, I find his analysis to be useful, accurate and unbiased. This is from the China Semiconductor report under Insights: To summarize, the Chinese acquire IP through partnerships with foreign companies, poach qualified staff from competitors, notably TSMC and Samsung, violate patents and, through poaching, acquire trade secrets and operational know-how that are not patented. Very similar, it must be said, to Samsung, SK Hynix and the Japanese before them. The rest of the report, and his other reports, are also worth reading. With regard to the IP, China has effectively adopted a twin-track strategy. The first track is best exemplified by the 2007 JV foundry relationship to manufacture flash memory between US Spansion (now owned by Cypress) and XMC (at that time called WXIC- and operated by SMIC). Over the course of the following decade, the two companies maintained & developed their relationship and in February 2015, XMC and Spansion announced a new partnership to develop and manufacture 3D NAND technology, both signing development and cross-licensing agreements. The IP stemming from this relationship is believed to be the foundation for Tsinghua Unigroups 3D NAND ambitions. Other sources of critical IP include semiconductor process technology licensing by IBM and IMEC. China's second track to IP acquisition is best exemplified by the lawsuit between TSMC and SMIC. In 2003, TSMC filed a lawsuit alleging that SMIC hired more than 100 former TSMC employees and asked them to provide SMIC with TSMC trade secrets. TSMC alleged that SMIC infringed on five of TSMC's IC process technology patents. In early 2005, SMIC and TSMC settled the lawsuit with SMIC paying TSMC $175m and TSMC gaining an eight percent stake in SMIC. Further litigation between the two companies until a final settlement in 2009. When it comes to the highly skilled resources required to build and operate modern-day semiconductor fabs, it's abundantly clear that China simply has nowhere near enough people. Consequently, employee poaching has become commonplace. When SK Hynix and ST Microelectronics founded their fab JV in Wuxi, China in 2006, they reportedly brought 500 engineers from Korea to ramp the new facility. According to this January 2017 article, XMC poached some 1000 workers from Samsung's Xian plant to ramp up its operations in Wuhan. In April 2017, it was reported that Micron was suing ex-employees now working for Chinese DRAM companies It's not just the loss of highly skilled employees that's bothering the Taiwanese & Korean foundry giants. It's the fact that much of what gives them the edge in terms of their process technology is actually not formal IP, rather trade secrets and operational know-how that's carried in the heads of those employees. Scott Foster
Mark, I hope all is well with you. I'd like to ask your permission to share the latest SNS issue with the Port Townsend City Librarian (Melody Sky Eisler). She's a really bright, young leader (like your kids) who would appreciate some sense-making around technology issues such as those raised in "SNS: Behind 5G." I think she'd be thrilled to be supported this way. Even though a small town, Port Townsend has an amazingly vibrant library scene serving an impressive crew of retired scientists, writers, artists and activists. Your thinking would contribute to Melody's growth as a civic force. David Engle
David, Absolutely, and thank you for asking, and for continuing to do great things for kids. Mark Anderson
Subject: BT to remove Huawei equipment Mark, Well, at least a big step in the right direction... John Petote [Founder
John, It's far beyond time. Should never have happened. Mark Anderson
Mark, Gives Trump even more negotiations leverage. China is really going to regret placing those tiny surveillance chips in the Super Micro Servers. This maneuver probably destroyed any remaining semblance of trust that may have existed by other Governments toward China. I've been saying all along that China's arrogance (e.g. server surveillance chips, South China Sea military build-out, gaining full leverage by indebting resource-rich developing nations, Confucius centers, etc., etc.) will be their downfall. Really good that they can't seem to cure their extreme arrogance else they'd have us by the balls for the long-term. John Petote P.S. Subject: In biggest Indian IT deal, HCL Tech to buy $1.8 billion of IBM Well at least IBM didn't sell all of this technology to China. Or maybe Trump just told them "don't even think about it..." John
Re: SNS Special Alert: IMPORTANT - re Saving the Resident Orca of Puget Sound
Even though I am not a resident of WA, I sent the message as you outlined below. What you are doing is so important and I certainly hope that the interest of the very few do not lead us to an irreversible consequence for such a beautiful species. Best to you and thanks for using your SNS Platform to spread this important message. Paul Dlugosch [CEO & Founder Subject: Poor Security Could Leave U.S. Defenseless Against Missile Attacks -
Mark, Resolving the most critical part of cyber security vulnerabilities is going to be a long end game. John Petote
Subject: - China wants to spy on you We must be vigilant about keeping Americans safe from hostile foreign actors Mark, America must be forever vigilant in guarding American companies and citizens from dependency on and surveillance by hostile foreign actors. Richard Marshall
Scott [Foster], Tim Cook finallllllllly figured out that his China dreams are a nightmare. When did SNS first say this about Apple? https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46742871 Mark Anderson
Mark, What a surprise. I wonder how Starbucks and Nike are doing in China now. etc. Recalculate all valuations assuming no growth or decline in China. Scott Foster
Subject: From the Economist: Decline in Chinese Total Factor Productivity Hi Mark (and Happy New Year!), Catching up on some reading over the holidays, I came upon the attached article from the Economist. [https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2018/12/15/the-lives-of-the-parties] It relates recent work by Harry Wu and David Liang of Hitotsubashi University in Japan showing that Chinese productivity is declining, and is doing so at an increasing pace. The chart shows Chinese Total Factor Productivity becoming negative (to the tune of about 1.4% per annum) during the period 2007-2012. Contrary to the narrative that this is merely a reflection of the U.S. Great Recession, the Chinese productivity problem appears to be accelerating. According to the Economist, "unpublished estimates by Mr. Wu suggest that in 2016 total factor productivity, or the contribution to growth not accounted for by the addition of labor and capital, dropped back to levels last seen in the early 1990s. The problem is the same as that which plagued the Soviet Union: capital, directed by political interests, piling up in inefficient parts of the economy." Seen in this context, Xi's increasingly tight grip on power and on the Chinese economy as a whole seems unlikely to rectify the situation. I fear that distraction by means of foreign conflict (perhaps Taiwan, given this week's news), an historically normal reaction to this kind of problem, could next be employed by Xi as a means to keep the Chinese population from questioning the grand bargain (increasing prosperity in exchange for not questioning their lack of freedoms) that has characterized the post-Deng era. If you agree, how would you suggest we position our companies and our investments, given these conditions? Best regards,
[Principal, Hadley Properties
Please visit www.stratnews.com/insideSNS for:
We look forward to returning to our FiRe roots on the beautiful California coast, October 8-11, 2019, at The Lodge at Torrey Pines in La Jolla. Early 2019 speakers and moderators include:
* On February 5, Mark will be giving the opening keynote talk at the Info-Tech LIVE event in Orlando, on "Predicting the Future." * The week of February 11, he will be speaking at private events in Germany. * On April 25, he will be hosting the SNS New York Dinner in NYC. * The week of May 20, Mark will be keynoting the EU Family Office annual event in Majorca, and speaking at additional events in Germany and the UK. * On October 8-11, 2019, he'll be hosting the 17th annual Future in Review conference, at The Lodge at Torrey Pines, in La Jolla, California. To register now, go to: www.futureinreview.com.
In between times, he'll be doing the mental calculation of exactly how much time and effort, hay, carpentry materials, feed, fencing, and number of total injuries, are incurred in the adoption of our two new goats, neither of which have a real farm job description.
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