SNS: 2020 Predictions II: The Technology and Economy Landscapes

In This Issue Week of 1/20/2020 Vol. 25 Issue 3

2020 Predictions II: The Technology and Economy Landscapes o   Introduction o   Divided We Fight o   Government by Protest o   The China Contraction o   The Tariff War o   1939 o   The New Technology Schism o   The "Real China" o   Global Warming o   Chip Wars and 5G o   Healthcare and Computing Inside SNS Upcoming SNS Events o   Future in Review 2020 o   Where's Mark?

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Coming April 23!

FiReSide NYC

With Special Guest

The Honorable John C. Demers

Assistant Attorney General
for National Security,
United States Department of Justice

"Spy vs. You:
What Every CEO Needs to Know"

Interviewed by:

Evan Anderson, CEO, INVNT/IP
(Subject of 60 Minutes' "The Great Brain Robbery")

Reception, Talks & Dinner, starting at 5:30pm

April 23, 2020
Lotte New York Palace Hotel
Madison Avenue
New York, New York

TAG Predictions 2020 with Mark Anderson

15th Annual TAG Predictions Luncheon
by Technology Alliance Group NW

Whatcom Community College
Bellingham, Washington
January 10, 2020 - 11:30am-1:30pm

 

Introduction

Last week we published the Top Ten Predictions for 2020, together with a review of our 2019 calls. These are the specific predictions we make yearly on how technology will drive the global economy in the following year, and they come from the conclusion of our annual SNS Predictions Event. What last week's issue did not include was our segments on the Technology and Economy Landscapes, also an annual tradition, which lay the foundations for those predictions.

 

It's a pleasure to be here. I am a longtime friend of TAG, and of all you TAGites, if that's what you are. I really enjoy this process. It's fun, and it leads me to a point where I can spend a little free time thinking about the future in a different way.

I've noticed something: This has been kind of a strange year, 2019. I'll bet you've all noticed that. And 2020 is going to be a weird year. One leading indicator, a pattern that would tell you that, is if you looked around - as I did last week - at who else is making predictions, who are the pundits out there ... Bloomberg always does something, and the Wall Street Journal always has a couple things. Every year there's a Top Ten Whatever.... Not this year. No one's doing it. It's like, what does that tell you?

The Bloomberg guy wrote a whole piece about a book that had been written about "It's hard to predict; it'shard," you know. "It's hard." So, that was his thing. And then the Wall Street Journal had a thing about "All the trends are coming to an end." Like, End of Days, or what? So, that was hard. That's the hard thing.

We have a saying at SNS. You've all heard of "black swans," unexpected events. Our saying is: "There are no black swans. There are just really bad predictors." I think people are paying proper attention right now; that's the main point I'm trying to make here.

Now, I'd like to throw out a couple of easy predictions just to kind of get warmed up, and then we'll do the usual thing - we'll do some stuff on economics, some stuff on tech, and then I'll read the predictions for the coming year.

Here are the easy ones:

There's going to be an election this year, and someone's going to win, and the other person's going to lose.

There's going to be a football game on Sunday, and a guy named Russell is going to turn and give the football to another guy named Marshawn.

Okay, I'm done with that. Those are the easy ones.