The Economic Landscape

1. Today's Global Economy and China's Role: Hot Money Meets Scarcity: The Ultimate Example of Flow and Interaction in a High-Demand, Low-Supply Global Economy. This one is different, thanks to China - which is why Wall Street is confused.
   
   
2. China's Role in Inflation: Currency Manipulation Forced Central Banks' Quantitative Easing, and Thereby Current Inflation. This is very different from 2007/8. Watch out now for Chinese state cryptocurrency plans.
   
   
3. China's Role in the Covid Origin Story:
   
   
1. The US funded and created the precursor virus, using GoF (gain of function) techniques in North Carolina, as proven by scientist Ralph Baric.
   
   
2. The US funded the same work, transferred to the Wuhan Institute of Virology: Francis Collins and Tony Fauci were likely aware, and US funds were sent through Peter Daszak and his EcoHealth Alliance.
   
   
3. The virus escaped, either intentionally or accidentally, from the Wuhan lab but has since been managed by the Chinese Communist Party as an Act of War, in either case.
   
   
4. Re: new variants: If we made Covid-19, who made these? What else went missing from that Wuhan lab locker that is today so empty?
   
   
5. "Raccoon Dogs and Frozen Maine Lobster"? China's propaganda simply serves to further isolate the country from the civilized world - its victims.
   
   
4. The Four Chinese Lies That Global Leaders Cannot Ignore:
   
   
1. "Covid came from the wet market." The Covid pandemic came from the Wuhan lab and was a deliberate act by the CCP, no matter whether the release was intentional or accidental. Either way, preventing investigation has led to 5M-10M deaths worldwide to date, with many, many more to come.
   
   
2. "Our national economic model is robust." The Evergrande collapse is just a symptom. The core of the Chinese model of theft and fraud is rotting from the inside. This is not a story of the CCP cracking down, but of it running out of concealment tricks.
   
   
3. "We didn't kill anyone." In the US, Covid is the top killer disease, approaching 800k, and Fentanyl is the top drug-overdose killer, at around 80k. The virus and the precursor chemicals both come from China. This is a problem shared with other countries in the West. Welcome to Unrestricted Warfare.
   
   
4. "We just want to get along." Actually, Xi Jinping's prime charter is global (economic) domination. (See Australian Defence Minister Peter Dutton's YouTube comment in "Quotes of the Week.")
   
   
5. On the Climate: The bad news, the good news: Mega Events are coming - as soon as five years from now - and some are happening today. (See Peter Wadhams' interview by Mark Anderson on YouTube, while considering this week's mega-tornado event in the US.)
   
   
6. The US: Unemployment down, markets up, increased consumer spending.
   
   
7. The Global-Rich Effects:
   
   
1. Luxury tech: Forget about PCs and phones. What's beyond home networks? Interpersonal nets, private and romantic.
   
   
2. Private jets accelerate takeoff: This market is going up.
   
   
3. Safe and exclusive resorts: Where else would the rich want to play?
   
   
4. Second homes are so yesterday: Third homes, new towns.
   
   
5. It's 1939:
   
   
1. Does Wall Street get slapped, or paid by both sides?
   
   
2. The Wall of Shame: Tim Cook, Pat Gelsinger, David Calhoun ---
   
   
3. Australian leadership speeches.
   
   

On Other Countries

1. Russia
   
   
1. Putin continues weaponizing (Islamic) immigrants, dividing NATO, the EU, and the US. Is he at work in Central America, too? Honduras? Nicaragua?
   
   
2. The cost to Russia of a full-scale Fulda Gap invasion of Europe and NATO is unnecessary when killing many more US and EU citizens can be done using five teens in a St. Petersburg basement using Covid anti-vax misinformation.
   
   
2. Germany: The Merkel worldview is over, thank goodness. Go Greens! China's control is waning, and the industrial base is safer.
   
   
3. CRINK: China moves strongly into the Arctic. China prepares for taking Taiwan as Russia prepares for taking Ukraine. Rockets keep moving from Russia to Iran to North Korea. Nuclear-test results move from NK to Iran. The Mordor Team.
   
   
4. Turkey: Erdogan flails about in his own self-built cage, caught between a secular past, Islamic zealot opponents, political paranoia, and counter-factual management of the economy. The result will be the worst of these worlds: political economics and religious paranoia. Does the Turkish economy collapse, and with what collateral damage?
   
   
5. Japan: Together with Oz, the political heart of The New West. New prime minister, Fumio Kishida, new alliances. How exciting for the world.
   
   
6. Australia: PM Scott Morrison is the global lead against China.
   
   

The Technology Landscape

1. Chips Are Everything: Fabs go to 2nm. New AI-driven designs take hold. More fabs for more types. Chip investment moves toward $400B worldwide. Major Asian chip firms escape the gravity of their parent countries:
   
   
1. The Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp. (TSMC) expands to Japan, the EU, and the US.
   
   
2. Samsung leaves China, expands to the US and elsewhere.
   
   
3. Intel, the throwback: Expands in China, the US, the EU. Hey, Pat - stop betting on China. It's so, well, traitorous. This really is the 1930s all over again. Just ask the Oz defense chief.
   
   
4. NVIDIA will lose its ARM battle and go after another target.
   
   
5. Qualcomm: Making good moves beyond the phone, if the new CEO can stick the landing. Good luck, because you'll need it.
   
   
2. The Global Tech Schism: China will fail to install a second world of its own technical standards but will not stop trying.
   
   
3. Solar and Wind: Offshore wind farms and land-based solar farms, both larger than ever built until now, will help accelerate what seemed impossible yesterday to just being too slow and hard tomorrow.
   
   
4. Healthcare: The Most Dramatic Innovation Sector:
   
   
1. AI and other advanced mathematics (Pattern Discovery) will lead to major advances in both diagnostics and therapeutics. The unsolvable will increasingly be solvable, and the untreatable, treatable.
   
   
2. Covid continues as a now-permanent social context, with the ongoing appearance of major variants displaying dozens of sudden mutations, often in the spike area. We continue to be unable to have public discussions regarding whether any of these variants are human-made (GoF) and/or intentionally released.
   
   
3. Non-invasive, real-time diagnostic tools, powered by advanced mathematics, will begin a multi-decadal march toward how we do medicine.
   
   

Graded Accuracy on Past SNS Predictions

[See "On Our Radar" below for full 2021 Predictions]

Past Predictions

2006-2020 Average = 95.49%

Est. 2021 Year Score = 95%

Total Average since 2005, including 2021 Predictions = 95.46%

[Math: (95.49 x 15 + 95)/16 = 95.46%]

The Top Ten Predictions for 2022

1. Battery technology responds to the most intense financial and innovation pressures in tech history, leading to radical improvements in both energy density and safety. New materials, solid-state, cheaper, faster, better. Huge fortunes are bet, lost, and made.
   
   
2. Rapid, accurate Covid detection will be recognized as the necessary complement to vaccination, with both being understood as required in order to avoid continuing health and economic damage. New math and Pattern Discovery will provide the detection improvements needed to keep the world going on both fronts.
   
   
3. Everyone makes chips, and chips are for everyone. We leave the era of chip monopolies and rapidly move into a completely new era of technological innovation at the most basic, often commercial, levels. Forget Intel; welcome Ford and GM. Forget PCs, servers, and smartphones and welcome Smart Everything. 
   
   
4. We accept the world of Absolute Insecurity, from IoT and home networks to ad tracking, the surveillance state, and completely invasive vendor behavior. While security companies remain prosperous, no one and nothing is trusted to be secure. This has a deep psychological effect on citizens, customers, and partners, in addition to the mammoth hidden tax put onto people, companies, and transactions by this forever-condition of theft and loss.
   
   
5. China becomes a pariah state, at last seen for what it really is and really does, to its own people and to others. Disengagement by the free world moves from a so-called impossibility two years ago to staged inevitability for all who can protect themselves.
   
   
6. SpaceX turns out to be well-named, since it now owns the commercial-space space. No one else is even close, from Virgin to NASA to Boeing and the Launch Alliance. Outside the Earth's atmosphere, Elon is an emperor.
   
   
7. Consumer spending goes up in the West, as too many years in Covid isolation drives enhanced consumption, particularly of luxury items, for oneself. This category is led by cars, cars, cars, and cars, with lots of expensive art, rare scotch, and other collectibles close behind as the category of Alternative Assets investment explodes, hedging against inflation.
   
   
8. The not-so-well-hidden internal contraction and/or collapse of China's domestic economic machine accelerates, with "tells" moving beyond property development and related markets and into an increasing number of sectors, with higher bankruptcy rates and more desperate (if secret) corporate bailouts by the CCP. There are no private companies now in China. And new dictator-for-life Xi, although worshipped by children brainwashed on Xi Thought, is no longer the popular guy he so recently was.
   
   
9. The climate struggle is joined. Faced with certain damage, agreed science, and the threat of new mega events - and encouraged by international consensus - the world seriously begins the exciting and painful move away from generations of terracide. Things go faster than predicted only a year ago.
   
   
10. The world economic war for a middle class becomes a defining, and now public, fight and characterizes a policy pivot away from globalism and the ownership class and toward the neglected goals of reshoring manufacturing, restoring jobs, and increasing middle-class incomes.
    
    

I hope that our members find these landscapes and predictions useful in the coming year, and that you, your families, and your companies benefit from their application.

Your comments are always welcome.

Sincerely,

Mark Anderson

mark@stratnews.com

____

 Email sent to SNS may be reprinted, unless you indicate that it is not to be.

To arrange for a speech or consultation by Mark Anderson on subjects in technology and economics, or to schedule a strategic review of your company, email mark@stratnews.com.

For inquiries about Partnership or Sponsorship Opportunities and/or SNS Events, please contact Berit Anderson, SNS Programs Director, at berit@stratnews.com.

SNS Terms of Service

"The world today is facing exactly the same challenges we faced in 1939. And, as then, our greatest enemies are not only the other side, but the global corporations that have traded allegiance to country and principles for greed. Back then, it was Ford and IBM working with Hitler. Today, it is Apple, Intel, and Boeing, working with the CCP, who ignore the concentration camps and preparations for war in and by China, hoping for money in return." - Mark Anderson and Evan Anderson, INVNT/IP, November 2018

"Apple CEO Tim Cook 'secretly' signed an agreement worth more than $275B with Chinese officials, promising that Apple would help to develop China's economy and technological capabilities. [. . .] The [five-year] agreement included a pledge from Apple to help Chinese manufacturers develop 'the most advanced manufacturing technologies,' 'support the training of high-quality Chinese talents,' use more components from Chinese suppliers, sign deals with Chinese software firms, collaborate with research in Chinese universities, and directly invest in Chinese tech companies, as well as assistance with around a dozen Chinese government causes - [automatically extending through 2022; investing] billions of dollars more on new retail stores, research and development facilities, and renewable energy projects.'" - The Information, 12/7/21

"Technological innovation has become the main battleground of the global playing field, and competition for tech dominance will grow unprecedentedly fierce." - Xi Jinping, quoted by Eric Schmidt and Graham Allison in the Wall Street Journal last week

"Unless the U.S. can organize a national response analogous to the mobilization that created the technologies that won World War II, China could soon dominate the technologies of the future and the opportunities they will create." - Eric Schmidt and Graham Allison; ibid.

"Both the prime minister and I have spoken about how the current times have echos of the 1930s. The world would be foolish to repeat the mistakes of the 1930s." - Australian Defence Minister Peter Dutton, addressing the National Press Club, 11/25/21; a must-see on YouTube.

cLICK here TO REGISTER for fire!

SNS TOP TEN PREDICTIONS FOR 2021

Grades from last year:

1. Re: 5G: The US military and the FCC solve the country's biggest broadband bottleneck, by finding a new way to cooperate on the sale and use of 5G spectrum.
   
   

10 pts.

2. The Biden administration is immediately (and reluctantly) pulled into creating an international technology-based security alliance. Biden's lack of tech chops (and interest) becomes painfully obvious.
   
   

10 pts.

All true, with plenty of proof points and more in the making, from chips to military tech worldwide.

3. We see a rush into private social networks, as election fatigue and Zuck anti-privacy ethics achieve new lows. A new business ecosystem of communities crossed with platforms is born.
   
   

10 pts.

From Zuck hatred to record EU fines for Google, countries and people are fed up and either moving out completely or finding safer places to talk.

4. A general and well-founded mistrust of AI grows, even as new AI applications explode in number. We learn all about what can go wrong with AI, not just in data bias, but also in mathematical fails that lead to harm on a business scale. AI accountability becomes a career choice.
   
   

10 pts.

Data bias is now a truism around the world, and few trust AI today in any social settings.

5. Healthcare finally moves beyond today's "standard of care" practices (at best, a dangerous legal foil) to third- wave AI in more "evidence-based" models. This begins a turn toward massive improvement in medical outcomes. What's next? "Pattern-based healthcare."
   
   

10 pts.

Some of the largest deals in healthcare (Grail repurchase, etc.) are based on finding patterns in liquid biopsies, oncology detection, and diagnostics and drug discovery across virtually all major categories and firms.

6. Vaccinations for Covid change everything, faster than the epidemiologists and economists expected. Reasons include increased individual confidence in shopping, entertainment, and working, as opposed to the medical establishment goal of vaccine-induced herd immunity. This leads to a quicker rate of economic return and creates new sector opportunities for investors who are hunting for strong firms with Covid-hammered stocks, such as:
   
   
1. Aerospace (Boeing)
   
   
2. Air Carriers (Southwest, Alaska Airlines)
   
   
3. Hospitality (Marriott)
   
   
4. Entertainment (AMC, owners of live events)
   
   

7 pts.

While there now are nations declaring herd immunity, the US, for purely political reasons, is certainly not one. At the same time, the continued emergence of high-mutation variants - whatever their source - has led to continued spikes and shutdowns worldwide. This prediction did come true by midsummer, with concomitant equity and economic benefits; but we now are investigating the origins of the new high-mutation variants. If these are being released intentionally, all bets are off.

7. Autonomous AI: These vehicles accelerate their move into the mainstream:
   
   
1. Tesla's AI just works better - much better - than average humans. And Autonomous AI works better with electric vehicles.
   
   
2. Trucks and Cargo Carriers provide platforms for yet quicker adoption; tougher range issues, but stronger financial incentives.
   
   
3. Cars in safer "racetrack" configurations proliferate worldwide, becoming well-accepted long before open-road permissions.
   
   
4. Drones expand but continue to find limited commercial use; Jeff Bezos was right.
   
   
5. Semi-autonomous weapons of all kinds are developed behind the scenes, with the trigger event still held, in theory, by humans.
   
   

10 pts.

Yes, it all happened, and continues to happen, from commercial to military.

8. Electric transport goes mainstream.
   
   
1. Virtually all major carmakers ship electric cars, with step-function increases in market acceptance by consumers. This marks "the most important pivot in transport since the Internal Combustion Engine took over from steam." The US (in innovation) and China (in subsidized programs) lead the parade, with Germany, the EU, and Japan following far behind.
   
   
2. The first electric planes have successful commercial pilot projects.
   
   

10 pts.

All true, from Orlando to Germany to China and the US.

9. Starlink leads the way to a new world of omnipresent bandwidth, allowing the other half of the human population access to the Net and eventually making Elon Musk the richest person on Earth, and beyond it.
   
   

10 pts.

That worked, at $300B net worth and counting.

10. XAI becomes a reality. Companies move past the largest problem in AI today, that of the "black box." Explainable AI helps the EU and other governments enforce fairness in understandable AI outcomes. This illustrates the critical importance of "the power of knowing why" regarding complex solutions that were previously unavailable in business and science.
    
    

8 pts.

There are a number of firms that now claim to have some form of XAI, although not according to the most rigorous definitions. On the other hand, Pattern Computer (disclosure: of which I am CEO) has been serving clients this year, via our Iceland module, with fully attributable and mathematically comprehensible explanations of AI Pattern Discoveries and their correlations. Technically, this has been achieved, but much more work is needed.

Graded Accuracy on Past SNS Predictions

2006-2020 Average = 95.49%

Est. 2021 Year Score = 95%

Total Average since 2005, including 2021 Predictions = 95.46%

[Math: (95.49 x 15 + 95)/16 = 95.46%]

Paul Daugherty | Group Chief Executive - Technology & CTO, Accenture

Member Type: Creator
Member #: 9691

Paul Daugherty is a leading authority on the technology innovations shaping the future of business and society. In his role as Accenture's Group Chief Executive - Technology and CTO, Paul predicts the future, sets Accenture's technology strategy, and directs its technology research and development, ventures, and ecosystem relationships to incubate the next wave of technology businesses. As the founder of Accenture's businesses in cloud, AI, blockchain, and other emerging technologies, Paul advises the world's top business and technology leaders on how to apply technology to reimagine and reinvent their organizations' futures.

Paul studied Computer Engineering at the University of Michigan in the early 1980s and became hooked on AI when he took a course with Douglas Hofstadter on Cognitive Science and Psychology. Most recently, Paul co-authored Human + Machine, a seminal book providing a much-needed management playbook to the business of AI. Human + Machine has been praised by Satya Nadella, Arianna Huffington, Marc Benioff, Doug McMillon, and many others.

A frequent speaker and writer on the future of technology innovation and its implications for business and society, Paul is regularly featured in a variety of media outlets, including the Financial Times, the Economist, MIT Sloan Management Review, Forbes, Fast Company, USA Today, Fortune, Harvard Business Review, the Wall Street Journal, Cheddar financial news network, Bloomberg Television, Fox Business, and CNBC. In 2019, Paul was named to Retail Week's Tech 100. He accepted the FASPE Award for Ethical Leadership in 2019 for Accenture's work in applying ethical principles to the development and use of AI and other innovative 21st-century technologies. He was named as one of Computerworld's Premier 100 Technology Leaders for 2017 for his extraordinary technology leadership.

Paul is a passionate advocate for equal opportunity, inclusion, and diversity in technology. He serves on the board of directors of Girls Who Code and is a strong advocate and sponsor of Code.org. He was also recognized with an Institute for Women's Leadership award, honoring business leaders who have supported diversity in the workplace and the advancement of women. Paul has also served as chairman of the board of Avanade, is on the board of trustees of the Computer History Museum, and is on the advisory board for Computer Science and Engineering at the University of Michigan. He lives with his wife in Maplewood, New Jersey.

SNS Connection: Paul Daugherty has been an SNS member since 2011.

Contact Paul on FiRe HQ

Look for recent media in SNS iNews referencing Paul

Check out Paul's book Human + Machine

Visit Paul's website

Re:    SNS: THE TOP TEN PREDICTIONS EVENT FOR 2022

Dear Mark, Berit, and Evan,

Well, I wish you were my family because I am always overwhelmed with your dazzling intellects and the amazing things that come out of your heads! Congrats on the best Predictions ever! I predict you will bat 98% this year, Mark! Your ability to look across the globe, across industries, across economies, and across populations is simply a gift.

This is more than a methodology, it is what makes you a unique person on this planet! I am so very, very honored to know you all!

Thank you for including me! Happy Holidays!

Love,

Jody

P.S. we need to talk more about misinformation / disinformation.

Jody R. Westby, Esq.
CEO, Global Cyber Risk LLC
Adjunct Professor, Georgia Institute of Technology, School of Computer Science
Washington, DC
www.globalcyberrisk.com

Mark,

Thanks [for the Predictions event]! Gets better and better!

Questions:

1. This question (put into chat near the end) didn't get asked, but I would like to know: Are you in favor of the "republic and 'vote if you want to' model," or of the Australian "voting as a mandate" model? Why?

2. ALSO: I have made substantial progress toward a new model of going beyond 20th c. education to "Empowerment."

   5 minute online book: https://bit.ly/empowerment-today

   Website: https://ministry-of-eai.org

   Video: EMPOWERMENT: The New Journey for the World's Young People: 30 min video

Not technology per se, but clearly related.

Worth a FiRe slot?

Best,

Marc Prensky

Author and Keynote Speaker
Current books & topics:
Digital Natives Rising
EMPOWERED! Reframing "Growing Up Human" for a New Age
EMPOWERMENT TODAY!
marcprensky.com| marcprenskyarchive.com | global-future-education.org | twobillionkids.world | ministry-of-EAI.org
[Palo Alto, CA]

Marc,

I would favor a voluntary voting republic, which I believe is what the founders decided after looking around the world at all of the other constitutional models. I think the current misstatements about the US being a pure democracy are historically inaccurate and amplify the horrible risks inherent in a free-speech country with an unregulated internet, available to all of its miscreants (FB) and enemies (Russia, China).

Personally, I'd like to see us keep free speech and sharply constrain the net.

Mark Anderson

Mark,

Good zoom yesterday.

We are at war with China!!! Instead of bullets and nukes they started the war by releasing the SARS-CoV-2 from the WIV [Wuhan Institute of Virology]. Calling it due to market-released bat shit is bull shit. All the medical members mags, e.g. AAAS, have been compromised by the CCP [Chinese Communist Party], making up fake data / historical scenarios and trying to sell it as truthful science.

But you haven't been compromised. So, WTF [why the feathers] don't you just publish your news letters that say this: China started the war with at least the US in late 2019 and their main weapons are lethal viruses that are easily and secretly dispersed. It's not a zoological event.

Happy Holidays to you and your impressive progeny. To have kids like that, mom must also be impressive.

Jerry M. Woodall

[National Medal of Technology Laureate
NAE member and Fellow: AAAS, NAI, APS, IEEE, ECS, AVS
& Distinguished Professor
UC Davis
David, CA]

Jerry,

Thank you. With your help, I think we did indeed just say what you wanted us to say. Couldn't have said it better myself.

Mark Anderson

Mark,

Really appreciated the "predictions" session yesterday.

Good job --THANK YOU.

Your comments on China were so accurate -- I wish many more colleagues understood the challenges as clearly.

And, your emphasis on the Founders' plan for a REPUBLIC was so well stated. But, we seem to have lost that idea, unfortunately.

Happy Christmas,

Bill

William C. Harris

[President & CEO
Science Foundation Arizona
Arizona STEM Network
Phoenix, AZ]

* On January 28, 2022, Mark will be keynoting the Technology Alliance Group's (TAG) annual SNS Predictions event in Bellingham, WA. * On February 28-March 4, he will be hosting Virtual FiRe. Registration is open here. The agenda and speakers are now posted here; look for updates in your Inbox and on our Facebook pages here and here, LinkedIn, Twitter, and of course, your members-only social platform, FiRe-HQ.

In between times, he will be waiting, waiting, waiting for the snow to fall.

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"Strategic News Service," "SNS," "Future in Review," "FiRe," "INVNT/IP," and "SNS Project Inkwell" are all registered service marks of Strategic News Service LLC.

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