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How to Stop a War, Part I: By Evan Anderson
FiRe is back! Future in Review returns, live, at the beautiful Terranea Resort in Palos Verdes, CA, November 69. Join old friends and new at this life-changing event. Register now and get your Earlybird ticket for just $3900 a savings of $2000. See more in "Upcoming Events." _____ Why Read: This week's issue is the first in a two-part series covering the threat of the PRC's aggression in Asia, global economic consequences, and how to achieve credible deterrence.
Author's Note: This two-part series seeks to identify the case for action across the world for a greater demonstration of deterrence to the People's Republic of China (PRC). This work is not intended to be a comprehensive assessment of the state of readiness of the armed forces of the countries discussed, for which there are far more qualified authors. Nor does it seek to "get ahead" of US or allied efforts here or intend to release confidential or classified information about these topics. The point, rather, is to outline ways in which greater deterrence can be both secured and highlighted in order to prevent the PRC from acting under the impression that a kinetic war in Asia is in its interest, with resulting disastrous consequences for the global population, economy, and human progress. _____ "When someone shows you who they are, believe them the first time." Maya Angelou "And action is the only remedy to indifference: the most insidious danger of all." Elie Wiesel The story of Xi Jinping's rise to the apex of power in China has been one of extreme power concentration. Over the past decade, a series of power plays and anti-corruption campaigns have allowed the Chinese leader to remove threats to his political control of the nation from all sides. By regularly removing or "disappearing" the politically and financially powerful not deemed sufficiently loyal, Xi arrayed the systems of the Chinese nation from the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to the People's Liberation Army (PLA) to realign toward a concentration of power not seen since the time of Mao. Gone are the days of Deng Xiaoping's reform, defined by the introduction of limits on overconcentration, which flowed directly from the disastrous results of Maoist policies that killed millions. All of this preparation paid off for Xi. By the time the CCP's National People's Congress met in 2018, removing term limits was likely a foregone conclusion. The confirmation of a third term for Xi, in March of 2023, put the final rubber stamp on something the world already knew: as goes Xi, so goes China. Any opportunity for a change in Chinese leadership has now passed. Until his death, the world will have to contend with Xi Jinping and his vision of China's future. As such, nations should be extremely attentive to his statement of this vision. And now, that vision is a vision of war. |
