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BILLIONS: PART II The Rapid Downshift in Birth Rates, and Why It Matters By Evan Anderson Why Read: Human demographics are key to the fate of economies, empires, and the environment the world over. This week, we revisit "the rate of change of the rate of change" and why current predictions about population continue to get it wrong. Those interested can see the first Global Report on this issue here. _____ In late 2020, we released the Global Report entitled "Billions," covering the errors in estimation inherent to UN modeling on population and why the global population would soon be shrinking far faster than assumed. That prediction is becoming truer every day. Some downside population shocks over the past couple years include the size and speed of drops in fertility rates especially in China and India. In such large countries, with populations of over 1 billion people, a drop in the rate of babies being born makes a big difference in global statistics. But things are changing everywhere, and fast. Now, with more data, we can see in detail the rate of decline in birth rates around the world. First, we'll take a look at what is happening now in global fertility, then get into why it's critical to understand these demographic changes if we want to accurately predict the future.
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