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The Future of CRINK: The Next 10 Years and What Can Be Done By Evan Anderson Why Read: There is no greater threat to global stability than the alliance of CRINK nations - China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea. While SNS often covers these countries' actions, this week we go a step further. Read on for a deep dive of what the CRINK players are capable of, what they want, and how we can stop them from getting it. - ERA _____ China stands ready to maintain close communication with Russia to promote sustained, sound, stable in-depth development of China-Russia comprehensive strategic partnership of coordination for a new era to the benefit of the two countries and the peoples. - Chinese President Xi Jinping, during a state visit from Russian President Vladimir Putin, Putin's first visit outside of Russia since 2022 (5/16/24) [. . .] the visit by the delegation of North Korean military trainers to Russia marks the first military exchange between Moscow and Pyongyang since a sweeping military treaty was signed last month. - Newsweek China's top diplomat told Iran that the nations can work together across a range of areas in the future, signaling their ties remain solid following Tehran's unprecedented attack on Israel. - Bloomberg News Since 2017, we at SNS have offered regular coverage of the increasingly formalized alliance comprising China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea - a grouping we first termed "CRINK" in August of that year. While we've spent many pages over the years documenting what the alliance is doing, or seeking to do, in the immediate, it is worth taking a look back for an even broader analysis. Outside of climate change (and indeed, even that issue is deeply interwoven with the geopolitical dynamics here), there is no greater current threat to global peace and prosperity than the CRINK alliance. From the COVID pandemic to the invasion of Ukraine, many of the conflicts unfolding out across the Middle East and the ongoing non-kinetic conflict of aggression being perpetrated by the People's Republic of China across the South China Sea, very few modern threats originate outside the borders of these four nations. While it is tempting to focus on reactionary policy to address each problem as it comes up, the West playing "Little Dutch Boy" with the security threats these actors so frequently generate is, in fact, likely their intent. To properly respond to the issues, we should go further in anticipating likely future moves. In so doing, we can better understand the inflection points along the way that must be recognized and properly addressed in order to better deter their attempts at harming countries, economies, and lives. The era of active hybrid warfare is well upon us, and response plans should take that into account. To generate such plans, we can analyze the current disposition of these countries by four key metrics - demographics, hybrid warfare capabilities, their economy (how powerful they are), and their intent (what they might do with that power). This also requires looking deeper than their own publicly stated statistics and desires and doing reality checks based more on observing their behaviors than on statements made or intentions announced. Many public voices across sectors fail to do this final step when analyzing CRINK and the implications of these nations' actions. This is not only dangerous, but at this point is either disingenuous (evidence of compromise) or a dire sign of misinformation. We begin with the People's Republic of China (PRC) - or, to be precise, the PRC under the rule of Xi Jinping.
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