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TRUMP vs. THE MARKET: THE Q4 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK By Berit Anderson Why Read: Donald Trump's actual political moves may be mercurial, but companies and the market will behave rationally based on their anticipation of decreased regulation, increased tariffs, and beyond. Here's how the business world's bets about Trump policies will shape Q4. - BBA ________
The deepest principle of human nature is the craving to be appreciated. - William James The way you behave when you think you can get away with it is who you really are. - Carly Fiorina
It is often said in polite conversation that no self-actualized, well-adjusted person would want to become president. The pressures of the position are intense, the power holds great consequence, and the need to placate constituencies, donors, and interest groups is unending. Enter Donald Trump, a man whose feeble EQ and pharaonic ego have come under as much scrutiny from his former colleagues as from his political opponents. That that particular combination of personality traits dictates his approach to policymaking, geopolitics, and economics makes his decision-making both unpredictable and easier to manipulate. The incoming president has laid out a wide range of policy planks on the campaign trail - many of them radical departures from the current business and regulatory environment. But the implementation of these policies may bear out very differently for individual businesses and actors within the global economy, depending on their ability to flatter his ego and support his desire for victory. At the moment, there are only three things we can say for sure: 1. None of Trump's policies will exist before January 21, 2025. 2. Regardless, businesses across the American economy will be making decisions in the next two months based on what they believe is coming. 3. Consumers will be making purchasing decisions in the runup to Trump's inauguration based on their beliefs about the economic conditions he will create. The intersection of these three things will drive the Q4 economy.
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