In This Issue Vol. 30 Issue 6

PATTERN ECONOMICS: Using Patterns to Accurately Predict the Global Economy Pattern Economics: Early Proof Cases The Metaphysics of Economics: Applying Pattern Recognition to the Global Economy QUOTES OF THE WEEK YOU CAN TAKE IT TO THE BANK ETHERMAIL UPCOMING EVENTS OUR PARTNERS WHERE'S MARK?

 

PATTERN ECONOMICS:

Using Patterns to Accurately Predict the Global Economy

By Mark Anderson

Why Read: There is a reason that economics is still called "the dismal science" - in short, it's because it fails the most basic test of being called a "science" today: the ability to accurately predict outcomes. This is the same reason we at SNS long ago decided never to use the word "economics," since its study is worse than useless - it causes misunderstanding as taught and practiced today.

In this week's discussion, we will review how SNS has managed to maintain very high (95.3%) predictive accuracy in this field, through pattern recognition vs. academic study and theories. If you need to understand how and why money moves in and around the world, you'll find what follows to be useful and refreshing.

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Pattern Economics: Early Proof Cases

Best-Selling Product in the Christmas Quarter

Even today, it's hard to believe we got this one right. After it panned out, our members would bring up this prediction during post-presentation Q&A sessions, just to hear the pattern logic one more time.

How, in the third quarter, did we make the call on the best-selling Q4 tech product?

Here were some of the pattern data points:

1. In August of that year,  Samsung announced difficulty finding supply-chain inventory for glass of that size;
   
   
2. AT&T announced layoffs of 30,000+ employees - a massive number at that time - with other companies following suit (lots of people were now stuck at home over the season);
   
   
3. Men (in particular) were watching football games, together, on the new widescreen TVs coming out;
   
   
4. Now picture a guy describing to his friends and demonstrating, with arms spread, the social value of how big his brand-new  TV was, with all of the related rationalizations and psychology around unemployed (and employed) folks at home over the holiday season, and beyond -

The call itself: the 36-inch Samsung flat-screen TV.

It sounds kind of trivial, looking back, but: out of all the types of objects, out of all the TV brands, out of all the sizes available - a hard prediction to get right.

I've included it here because it shows the many levels of patterns, from inventory and real demand to psychology and economic context, that can combine to accurately make a fairly difficult prediction.

SNS members are aware of many other, more difficult and important predictions over recent years. Here are a few, all made using pattern-recognition techniques:

• Prediction of the Thai baht currency crash of 1997
  
  
• Prediction of the Oil Price Collapse of 2014
  
  
• Prediction of the Global Financial Collapse in March 2007, on live TV from London on CNBC's Powerlunch Europe
  
  
• First recognition and naming of China's then-new "InfoMerc" national business model (and sharing it with Five Eyes political and intel leaders)
  
  
• First recognition and naming of the CRINK (China, Russia, Iran, and NK) alliance and predicting its future role in the global economy
  
  
• Prediction of the onset of China's economic implosion, in January 2015
  
  
• Calling of the manufacture of EVs by the Chinese Communist Party as the spearpoint, and technology platform enabler, in its economic ("all fronts") war with the West

Each of these world-shaping economic discoveries and events was made not through economic academic training and dogma, but by using pattern recognition.

So, what have we, as a group convinced of the power of pattern recognition in making pattern discoveries, learned about the world of money and how it moves? What metapatterns have we found that we can share, so that others can do much, much better than the "expert" economists in understanding this aspect of the world?