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"Next Year's News This Week" 2025 in review: patterns made and broken By Mark Anderson _______ Why Read: This week's discussion comes in an unusual two-part format: our effort to look back using two different views, each both general and important. First, major patterns made or broken - something our members know can lead to accurate predictions. Then, in "Upgrades," we take a close look at China's current global and self-chosen role as economic parasite, a term we hope will gain wider acceptance as a result, because - as you'll see - it is now clearly the most accurate. - mra _______
Patterns Made and Broken in 2025 SNS members know the lens we bring to the study of tech driving the world economy is pattern-based. We try to be equally aware of both consistent, repeated patterns and when those patterns are broken; in both cases, we learn something others often have missed, and we share these with you. From that perspective, we thought you would enjoy a review of some of the more notable examples from 2025, peppered with our usual SNS Quizzes as a sub-form of conveying more detail - and a little humor. Here, then, are a few of the more interesting patterns made or broken among last year's trends and event: I. The Witkoff Dossier The increasing appearance of White House aide Steve Witkoff as the key negotiator in the Ukraine war with Russia, has been well noted everywhere. Most recently, he has been shuttling to Russia and Florida, with Jared Kushner and others, in an effort to create the final treaty document between these countries. But who is this person, really, and why is he in this position? It's time for our first SNS Quiz. Q: Who in the White House shares these attributes? a) Longtime golf buddy with someone else of power in the White House b) Previously a real-estate developer in New York City c) Appears to have received funding from top oligarchs or other Russian sources d) Has friends among the Russian oligarchs and other elites and is on good terms with Vladimir Putin, whom he also considers a friend e) Is linked to reports of condo deals in Florida with one or more Russian oligarchs f) Provided financing by a bank with numerous accusations and been involved in various money-laundering scandals and regulatory issues g) Has just created a treaty proposal for ending Russia's war on Ukraine which many suggest was written by Putin's team, given its apparent one-sidedness A: a) Secretary of State Marco Rubio, obviously, since this is his job b) Jared Kushner, the president's son-in-law, who has done many jobs like this in the Middle East c) The president himself, since only he could do this job right d) Steve Witkoff, the president's golfing buddy and crypto partner You know the answer already. II. Huang: 10, Trump: 0 President Trump's record during his prior term and the beginning of this term was one of recognizing the China threat in an all-fronts war against the West more clearly than any other past president. More important, he was willing to take strong action, including tariffs of 145%, and expanded Entities List members, blocking dual-use investments in China and curtailing the sale of Nvidia high-end AI chips. And then, he reversed on almost everything, faced with China's threat to cut off shipments of rare earth metals, and with Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang's intense lobbying efforts to restore what looked like about 25% of his gross sales, via China. Q: Who came out the winner in this series of flip-flops, a clear pattern broken? A: a) China's AI companies b) Huang and Nvidia c) China's military d) The Democrats e) All of the above You know the answer to this one, too. III. EVs Eat the EU Well, Germany and the EU, you sure can't say we didn't warn you, years before it happened. This was the year that, almost overnight, China launched its direct attack on the EU car market, taking a huge percentage of EV sales, walking over the German car companies, benefiting from prior factory locations inside the EU, blowing through other EU battery manufacturers, and showing in no uncertain terms what it's like when free-trade countries and private companies face the financial power of Chinese IP theft, directed industry targeting, and massive subsidies. This is a pattern so well-trodden that no one gets to pretend they didn't see it coming, nor expect the outcome. Q: Who actually did see this global economic attack coming in EVs and manage to stop it in time? A: a) Ursula von der Leyen, resident of the EU Commission b) The CEOs of BMW, Mercedes Benz, and Volkswagen c) President Biden d) Australian PM Albanese e) Japanese PM Fumio Kishida f) President Trump The answer is, of course, f) President Trump, who thereby saved the US EV (and hybrid) car sector from complete devastation. Essentially zero Chinese EVs are currently being sold in the US. IV. Wall Street Asks Valley Execs: Are You High? The year appears to have seen what might be called "peak LLM," with future proposed revenues anchoring so-called "circular deals" in an obvious callback to a game of musical chairs. On a financial level, the worries over an "AI bubble" began to turn Wall Street analysts from staunch believers into two crowds. On a technical level, the pattern was more obvious: anyone who fell for IBM Watson's performance on Jeopardy!, would have immediately recognized the same risks in OpenAI's performance at Bill Gates' house, in passing the AP biology test. Remember Watson? Why would anyone think scaling it would fix it? Even with transformers, or RAGs, or GANs, or -- We're trying to think of a quiz for this, but frankly, it's hard. Everyone except Gary Marcus failed. Well, and now, Yann LeCun. Oh, and Ilya Sutskever and Mira Murati. And, of course, Pattern Computer. :) V. Elizabeth Warren Haunts California Is it smart to promote a state tax policy that forces those who are wealthy on paper but may have no money (i.e., entrepreneurs), to pay large amounts of cash? Having failed in every state where Warren & Co. have tried this to date, such failure was not enough to stop the leaders of the Service Employees International Union-United Healthcare Workers (SEIU-UHW) from filing a referendum that not only proposes this particular form of economic suicide but will also - if they get another 800k+ signatures - be retroactive to January 1, 2026. In other words, people had to leave the state by then, just in case, a year later, the bill passed. (We have to consider an Undemocratic Freedom award for this move.) And leave they did, including Peter Thiel and other very successful founders, heading mostly for Miami and Austin. A recent Seattle op-ed on this folly assured readers that wealthy innovators don't really leave when faced with anti-wealth taxes, by profiling a very wealthy tech founder who recently left California for Washington State because of, well, those taxes. Unbelievable. Q: What are the causes behind the increasing wealth gap in the US and around the world? A: a) The increasing gap between owning companies vs. working for them b) China's successful role in stealing IP, giving state subsidies to the thieves and driving the inventor companies out of business, while driving those manufacturing sectors and jobs straight into China c) Increased competition at the bottom end of the pyramid for lower wages, as a result of a massive increase in immigrants willing to work for less d) Movement of investment banks into residential home ownership markets at a scale that perverts this market e) Movement of Chinese investors willing and able to pay cash at above-market prices for residences, on a massive scale f) The dramatic increase in charges levied by the healthcare industry, appearing to be out of control on a decadal scale g) The dramatic increase in charges for university educations, with no chance of bankruptcy or escape, leaving most graduates in lifelong debt after graduation h) Political unfairness Hint: The last is the result of all the former. VI. Climate Change Evaporates Q: What is one to make of the sudden evaporation, in the US and numerous other countries, of support for responding to climate change? A: a) If you close your eyes, the bad thing will just go away b) Whatever President Trump says - well, that's the way it is c) There is no such thing as science - or at least, trusted science d) There is no such thing as facts e) Rocketing insurance rates don't matter; just ignore that f) The US is always right, and the EU is always wrong g) Venezuela has more oil than Saudi Arabia, and it is now our 51st state (sorry, Canada) h) It's just so haaard - VII. Sweden - Yes, That Sweden - Becomes the Homicide Capital of the EU For those among us who have not lived through the latest Swedish Un-miracle, this quiz is for you: Q: How did Sweden, the most liberal country in terms of allowing in-migration per capita over the last few years, rapidly become the EU country with the highest homicide rate? a) They're so far north, and it's cold up there. b) By becoming the top non-English English-speaking country, Sweden inherited all of the worst habits of the US, including killing one another. c) After decades of liberal rule, Swedes abruptly elected the far-right New Democrats (which happened after this huge crime wave, but ignore that part). d) Swedes were just too nice; not sustainable. e) Swedes mainly eat herring and reindeer, which lack certain key ingredients conducive to peaceful behavior. f) It's just a mystery. g) Russia weaponized Islamic Syrian civilian migration by barrel-bombing them out of their homes, thereby driving them into the EU (and liberal Sweden) in massive numbers. A: Yeah, you know the answer. VIII. The Gaza Generation Gap In a pattern broken, 2025 saw one of the most amazing political upheavals in a generation, as many of those under 35 or so, worldwide, adopted a pro-Islamic, anti-Israel political stance - the apparent result of the killing of over 70,000 citizens of Gaza by Israel. There are many examples of this, including the election of a Muslim to the office of mayor of NYC. Is there anyone, anywhere, who thought a Muslim would be mayor of NYC, at any time in the post-9/11 era ? Worldwide, protests and political demonstrations by this new, young voting bloc are more than self-evident; for this age group, it seems almost a requirement. Q: Who was right and who was wrong in this tragic situation? A: All of the above. IX. China Explodes Exports Worldwide, Moving into Role of Global Economic Parasite While the rest of us were busy arguing about Taiwan, AI, and chips, China crowned decades of preparation for a global attack on the world economy, moving away from US tariffs and toward even its global partners, none of which were spared. For details, see "Upgrades" below; no, we couldn't think of a quiz for this one.
Your comments are always welcome.
Sincerely, Mark Anderson
Copyright 2026 Strategic News Service. Redistribution prohibited without written permission. DISCLAIMER: NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE Information and material presented in the SNS Global Report should not be construed as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice. Nothing contained in this publication constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer by Strategic News Service or any third-party service provider to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. This publication is not intended to be a solicitation, offering, or recommendation of any security, commodity, derivative, investment management service, or advisory service and is not commodity trading advice. Strategic News Service does not represent that the securities, products, or services discussed in this publication are suitable or appropriate for any or all investors. We encourage you to forward your favorite issues of SNS to a friend(s) or colleague(s) 1 time per recipient, provided that you cc info@strategicnewsservice.com and that sharing does not result in the publication of the SNS Global Report or its contents in any form except as provided in the SNS Terms of Service (linked below). To arrange for a speech or consultation by Mark Anderson on subjects in technology and economics, or to schedule a strategic review of your company, email mark@stratnews.com. For inquiries about Partnership or Sponsorship Opportunities and/or SNS Events, please contact Berit Anderson, SNS COO, at berit@stratnews.com.
China: Portrait of a Global Economic Parasite SNS has the distinction of having been the first to discover China's national business model, and to have named it InfoMercantilism. While this remains an accurate descriptor of the country's way of making money in the world, China now seems to be at a stage in which this is, as they say in science, perhaps necessary but not sufficient. For that, we need to add a new term to describe the obvious global result of the decades-long practice of the model: parasite. Here is a definition we find a perfect fit for China's relation to all other nations: From the National Cancer Institute's "NCI Dictionary of Cancer Terms": Parasite: An animal or plant that gets nutrients by living on or in an organism of another species. A complete parasite gets all of its nutrients from the host organism, but a semi-parasite gets only some of its nutrients from the host. From Merriam-Webster: 1. an organism living in, on, or with another organism in order to obtain nutrients, grow, or multiply often in a state that directly or indirectly harms the host [...] 2. someone or something that resembles a biological parasite in living off of, being dependent on, or exploiting another while giving little or nothing in return To see the results of China's parasitic behavior, one need only look at the following three charts, noting the mirror results of parasite (going up) and host (going down). First, in the export of manufactured goods: SNS members will recall that China shifted into its InfoMerc model in ca. 2003.
Source: chinapowercsis Then, in the trade balance of commodities, first for China (again, notice the importance of the 2003 shift into InfoMercantilism):
And then the US:
But what almost everyone seems to have missed is the revving-up of this economic attack by China over the last few quarters. Timed almost exactly with what SNS has determined to have been the COVID bioweapon attack by China, the push on exports was terrific:
China's trading partners, including India, did not escape this attack:
Neither did the original attack target - the US - despite some protections coming from Trump's tariffs:
The long-term construction of this export machine in manufactured goods is perhaps best portrayed by electricity production, starting at the same time, creating the foundation for this attack. Unfortunately, its targets - including the US - were completely unprepared for the intended onslaught of half-price competitive goods on the global market. We know this because we briefed their targets' top intelligence-community and political leaders. One US Fed executive was so naive as to recently call this China's "production over-supply problem." Almost all this buildout was funded by the theft of intellectual property (inventions) from the West: US Monthly Imports of Goods from Three Major Trading Partners
After blindly funding the Left for years, Silicon Valley is finally realizing what time it is. Dinner time. And they're on the menu. - Venture capitalist and San Francisco resident David Sacks, in a post on X this week
The insane "wealth tax" being proposed would cause innovators to leave California when we're already #1 in unemployment. This would also collapse our state's shaky finances. - Rocklin Rep. Kevin Kiley (R-CA), noting he worries this could drive more people out of the state; posted on X
The New York Times reported Google co-founder Larry Page and co-founder of PayPal Peter Thiel are considering leaving California. - KCRA.com Almost all of my clients are taking steps as quickly as possible both to sever California residence and to move assets outside of the state. - David Lesperance, a tax and immigration advisor for high-net-worth individuals; quoted in the New York Times Note: As of this writing, Peter Thiel has moved some operations to Miami, and Larry Page has filed three new corporations in Florida, according to the New York Times.
The hype that LLMs are on the brink of "true intelligence" mistakes fluency for thought. Real thinking requires understanding the physical world, persistent memory, reasoning, and planning that LLMs handle only primitively or not at all, a design fact that is non-controversial among AI insiders. - Gleb Lisikh; quoted in the Epoch Times This is going to be one of the largest single-sector investments that India's ever seen. - Somnath Mukherjee, chief investment officer, ASK Wealth Advisors, Mumbai; quoted in the New York Times
Sunday, December 28, 2025 ASIA LETTER: Q1 2026: SOHEI KAMIYA REDEFINES JAPANESE POLITICS By Scott Foster ...[T]he real new force in Japanese politics is Sohei Kamiya, whose nationalist Sanseito party has put nearly 200 of its members into national, regional, and local assemblies and presented the nation with a detailed policy platform that would overturn the liberal elitist assumptions governing Japan today.
Sunday, December 21, 2025 SPECIAL LETTER: OFFLINE, NOT LEFT BEHIND: EDTECH AND AI FOR A (DIS)CONNECTED WORLD By Jamie Alexandre In this week's issue, Learning Equality CEO Jamie Alexandre describes the state of global digital education today and how it may be improved. From matters of global access and the advent of AI tools to the use of offline software and more, Jami delves into how we can increase education access among the world's children, wherever they live. This FiReStarter Special Letter is shareable with non-SNS members.
Sunday, December 14, 2025 HOW LEARNING MODELS WILL SHAPE AI'S FUTURE By Berit Anderson With generative models seeing diminishing returns on massive compute scaling, AI's brightest minds are striking out on their own and going back to the drawing board. This week's Global Report explores the next generation of approaches, models, and strategies from Yann LeCun, Ilya Sutskever, and Mira Murati.
Sunday, December 7, 2025 SPECIAL LETTER: RISK AND OPPORTUNITY IN A TIME OF HYPER-DECENTRALIZED NEWS By Mark Listes | Special Letter | FiReStarter edition This week's issue, by Pendulum CEO Mark Listes, describes the shifting sands of the information environment, the rise of information warfare tactics being deployed across media by a coterie of actors both military and civilian, and what can be done to track and respond to these emerging paradigms in the digital information space. This FiReStarter Special Letter is shareable with non-SNS members.
Thursday, November 27, 2025 SNS SPECIAL ALERT: PIVOT INTO CHAOS II Friday, October 31, 2025 SNS SPECIAL ALERT: PIVOT INTO CHAOS I By Mark Anderson This 2-part Special Alert is shareable with non-SNS members.
Note: Some letters may be republished to include subsequent replies. Subject: MSFT Cancels All Library Subs: Final Chance to Renew Thanks Mark, I signed up today. I personally get a lot of Insight from your company's work, so thank you for putting this offer together and making this obtainable to still read. Enjoy the New Year, [Name redacted] Microsoft
Subject: SNS SPECIAL ALERT: Pivot into Chaos I Mark, I agree - scary indeed. On this one, can we share far and wide with appropriate credit? Via email? Via an FB post? [...] And, to make things worse, as this is happening I fear that the U.S. Regime has been firing the very government experts charged with fighting cyber attacks. Competence really matters at times like these. Rick LeFaivre Board Member (fmr.), Pattern
Rick, Thanks to you, all SNS members have our permission to share Part I & Part II of this Special Alert widely - and, if you wish, cc scott@stratnews.com and he will give all recipients a free trial to the Global Report. Mark Anderson
Mark, And all at a time when, regardless of your politics, we have the most incompetent and inexperienced (the latter point is inarguable, again regardless of politics) people in history in charge of defense, security, intelligence, etc etc etc. I remember after 9/11, Mark, suddenly feeling like anything could happen. Nowadays I feel like anything (and pretty much everything) will happen. The world wants, make that needs, strong clear rational leadership, and no one knows where to look anymore in an America First world. Paul Shoemaker Executive Director, Carnation Farms
Paul, As noted in the Special Alert referenced above, it feels as though we are all being driven to extremes, and certainly not the old comfortable, rational ones. The three powers are fighting, and most of the rest of us are scrambling, just trying to keep ends together. But where huge tectonic shifts occur, tragedy and opportunity both show up, and there are always plenty of takers to match them. Makes farm life look pretty good, I think. Best of luck with [your] Carnation [farm] - Mark Anderson
Subject: SNS SPECIAL ALERT: Pivot into Chaos II Mark, This is an interesting perspective, but it seems to assume that the "West" has a uniform view, which would be the one of the US. But from Europe, USA imperialism increasingly looks worrying for many people. Furthermore, does it make sense to talk of a "free world" when most of what Europe does is directly or indirectly controlled by the USA? And to your point about AI, shouldn't non-US citizens worry too about what the USA is "doing right now, today, with these very real and dangerous tools"? (see e.g. https://www.authoritarian-stack.info/) Philippe Delvaux Proton.me
Philippe, As you probably are aware, we at SNS spend an unusually large (for the US, anyway) amount of time and effort researching, traveling to, and writing about, the rest of the world. With that in mind, here are a few responses:
I hope that adds a bit of light. We are all in this at the same time, together. Mark Anderson
Subject: SNS Special Letter: OFFLINE, NOT LEFT BEHIND: EDTECH AND AI FOR A (DIS)CONNECTED WORLD Mark et al., Learning Equality sounds like a highly laudable effort worthy of support. But the contrast between offline and online is too stark. A first step, alluded to in the article, is more targeted learning materials and processes in the right languages and using images and analogies appropriate for the targeted students. Then come the delivery mechanisms. High-speed always online is one, though even that could vary from one building in the community to ubiquitous. But one can imagine physically shipping digital or analogue materials and instructions on how to use them. Then come the end-user choices. Using digital devices has many advantages but also many drawbacks. One could imagine shipping a printer so materials delivered in digital form (either electronically or physically) could be converted into physical form). Finally, as with wheelchair ramps that are also good for wheeled suitcases, developing alternatives to always-on, ubiquitous, high-speed connectivity is good for us all. I just got off a cruise ship, and the ability to download or upload material when connectivity was available and read or compose when it was not made a significant contribution to our enjoyment. Rollie Cole Senior Fellow, Sagamore Institute for Policy Research
Subject: Re: 2025 A Year in Review Berit, All the very best of the season and over the coming year to you, your family, and the rest of the SNS/FiRe team. It's indeed a pleasure to follow your efforts. Take care, Craig Dobson Principal
Subject: Scientists make breakthrough that could render batteries obsolete: 'The beginning of a new generation' Mark, Scott [Foster], et al., If they can get this to really work and reach acceptable consistency, at a competitive cost, this sure seems like a mind blowing advance in innovative technology. Interesting that Europe is leading the way, rather than the US. John Petote Founder, Santa Barbara Angel Alliance |
John, If I'm reading this correctly, the scientists in Hamburg have found a way to treat the creation of static electricity as though it were a battery-storing energy; just as your shoes dragged on the home carpet store electric charge in your body until you touch a door handle. Basically, in both cases, through triboelectrification, we are seeing the exchange of electrons and/or charge through friction. Whether this could be scaled up, or whether it is useful at a nano-scale, I suspect it is the latter that would turn out to be the most useful, if at all. But it is certainly interesting -- Thank you for writing in, Mark Anderson
* Mark will be speaking at, and/or attending, the following conferences and events: * January 12-15: J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference and BioTech Showcase and bio partners meetings, San Francisco * January 14: Speaking on a panel at the PitchForce JPM conference, San Francisco, on the subject of AI and the life sciences * May 31-June 3: Future in Review, Qualcomm Institute, UC San Diego
In between times, he will be reading the 500+ pages of new papers on his Resonance theory in physics that came out of the newly created Resonance Theory Working Group over the last few weeks. Members will hear more shortly.
Strategic News Service (SNS) is a membership-based news organization providing the most accurate source of information about the future of technology as it drives the global economy. It is the publisher of the weekly SNS Global Report, which brings members predictive, deep-dive analysis at the intersection of tech, economics, and geopolitics. SNS hosts monthly virtual Spark salons, offering members access to its global network of leaders in business and industry and allowing them to capitalize on the insight and experience of the broader network. Annually, SNS releases CEO Mark Anderson's Top 10 Predictions for the coming year, which have a 95.3% publicly graded accuracy rating. Founded in 1995, the Global Report is read by industry leaders worldwide. Bill Gates has called it "the best thing I read."
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