Benjy confirmed the validity of this research and mentioned many more studies published since then.

For instance, studies on humans experiencing jet lag of six hours or more show a variety of deleterious health effects, including various illnesses (including cancer) and an apparent disconnect between the clocks of different organs.

These problems occurred not only with pilots and frequent travelers, but also with shift workers - something else that has been well-documented.

My first question was perhaps the most obvious: Does jet lag of this magnitude lead to the shortening of airline pilots' lives?

While we can intuit the right answer, I am happy to say that Benjy has agreed to join us for FiRe 2016 this year - the theme of which is "The Power of Flows" ­- to share with all of us details on this fascinating work in person. Clearly, this is a huge issue.

At the end of our conversation, I asked a more important question: Do these problems arise because never, in the multibillion-year history of our genome's evolution, was it exposed to jet lag?

Benjy's eyes lit up, and he jumped right in. "I've been thinking about this a great deal," he said. "And the answer has to be 'yes.'"

The Lightbulb Goes On

After my talk with Benjy, the above question stayed with me through the week's other meetings, and it fell into a more expanded and generalized form.

While it is well accepted that evolution, with its billions of years of trial-and-error, has created genomes that are near-perfect in their "fitness" for the environment, that environment has changed radically over the last few hundred years. What happens when a genome is exposed to something quite different from anything it has ever, in four billion years, encountered before?

Like jet lag.

Obviously, until the last century, no genome on earth, of either plant or animal, has been faced with the sudden clock shifting caused by jet lag; there were no jets.

Is this why humans and animals are so poor at adjusting that they face shortened lives, or cancer, or serious disease, just by this exposure? Most of us probably think of jet lag as pretty benign - just take a pill, or don't drink on the plane, and you'll be OK a day later.

Today at least, those of us with consistent exposure know that this is not true. Our genomes are completely unprepared for this kind of "insult," and the results can be disastrous. And the fact that most people don't know this doesn't change anything - in fact, it makes the problem more serious, more pernicious, more dangerous, given the extreme risks involved.

It's safe to say that few, if any, humans think of problems such as sleep, health, food, and so forth in evolutionary terms; it just doesn't come up. Instead, we think of hours of sleep needed and "catching up" when we can, as though this internal-clock problem is no different than that of resetting a watch. We have the same approach to everything: it's a here-and-now issue, related only to what we think or know to be the best (diet, practice, sleep regime) at the moment.

Perhaps this way of thinking needs adjustment.

What if there are two kinds of behaviors for any living thing: those for which one's genome is prepared and those for which it is not?

What if these two behaviors have radically different outcomes? Should we use stronger, more specific words to identify the problem?

Is it possible that our genomes literally live in, and experience, two different worlds - one composed entirely of environments and challenges previously encountered over an evolutionary timeframe, and the other composed of environments and challenges that are "new" and novel over this same timeframe?

From the perspective of an evolutionary biologist, this concept seems painfully obvious. After all, how can any organism be expected to be fit - to be able to efficiently cope - with problems that have never arisen during the evolutionary process? It would be like expecting a 1940s-era radio to pick up Sirius satellite broadcasts.

But from the perspective of a human being, this distinction is at once more abstract and more personal (if not life-shortening).

Is the world, in this way, this simple?

How would healthcare experts, or medical researchers, look at this issue? Answer: They wouldn't. It wouldn't even occur to them.

Is it the most important question of all, from the "perspective" of any organism's genetic code?

Yes, it is.

You can't design a machine for one set of things and then expect it to do well when faced with an altogether different environment. Even "general" machines will have trouble. In fact, this is the very definition of the process of extinction: a species (a genome) is faced with change or inputs from its environment, without time to evolve to fit those changes. Result: End of that species.

The Human Microbiome

Benjy's father, Larry Smarr - the founding director of Calit2 - is well-known to SNS members for his active participation in FiRe, for calling Calit2 "The FiRe Lab," and for many years of collaboration on our various projects. Indeed, Larry launched his career as a global authority on "personalized health" at FiRe a few years ago, and today, with Rob Knight at UCSD, is doing leading-edge work on the human microbiome and its role in human health.

Thanks to the work of Larry and others, we now know that the microbiome is an integral part of the community of cells we have been calling "human." In fact, about 90% of "our" cells are non-human - mostly bacteria - and have co-evolved with our human cells over millions, if not hundreds of millions, of years. Ongoing research suggests that human health as well as disease are directly and intimately affected by the contributions from the microbiome.

So, here is the next obvious question: Do the species of the microbiome also have biological clocks? And, if so, can they also be deranged by exposure to non-evolutionary stressors?

You have already guessed the answer: Of course.

Not only are there circadian rhythms inside microbiome cells, but as a community (mostly in our gut), there are diurnal changes from day to night in the group's composition.

Eugene Chang and colleagues at the University of Chicago Medical Center found in a recent study that mouse gut microbiota (microbiomes) produce metabolites in diurnal patterns, and these can influence the expressions of circadian clock genes in the liver.

Researcher Satchidananda Panda of the Salk Institute for Biological Studies notes in an article in The Scientist that "the circadian rhythm of these mice is disrupted at the molecular level, which is very surprising and says that the gut microbiome plays a role in circadian rhythm not only in the peripheral organ, but also in the central nervous system."

Referring to the above Chicago study, he adds: "The nice thing here is that the authors show that removal of the microbiome has an effect on circadian rhythm. Figuring out why this happens is the next big question."

To complete the circle in this part of the discussion, a research article in Cell published in 2014 indicated that derangement of human microbiome circadian rhythms by either jet lag or shift work led to an increased risk of cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and some cancers. Yes, your "bugs" get jet-lagged, too.

For the purposes of this discussion, the message is straightforward: your gut bacteria affect your biological clock. This microbiome directly contributes to health and disease, and its circadian disruption is as critical to health as that of human cells.

Next week, in Part II, we will complete this discussion, with detailed scientific studies supporting this new idea and a series of new scientific and health categories to which it applies.

Your comments are always welcome.

Sincerely,

Mark R. Anderson

CEO
Strategic News Service LLC           Tel.: 360-378-3431
P.O. Box 1969                                    Fax: 360-378-7041
Friday Harbor, WA 98250 USA    Email: mark@stratnews.com

[Disclosure: Microsoft, like many large technology companies, is a customer of SNS.]

To arrange for a speech or consultation by Mark Anderson on subjects in technology and economics, or to schedule a strategic review of your company, email mark@stratnews.com.

We also welcome your thoughts about topics you would like to suggest for future coverage in the SNS Global Report.

   "We have a central clock in the brain which is tuned to the external light / dark environments and this central clock sends signals to peripheral clocks all around our body. These clocks are kept in synch with the central clock in the hypothalamus."- Simon Archer, University of Surrey, Guildford, UK; quoted in the journal Endocrinology.

   "By day three [of circadian derangement of four hours per day], about 96% of these genes had lost their circadian rhythm. The temporal expression that we saw in the expression of these genes is happening in our organs in response to jet lag or shift work situations, and this is contributing to disease." - Ibid.

   "When people are jet-lagged or do shift work, all those clocks become desynchronized and because of slight differences in the way these clocks work, they resynchronize at different speeds. So it takes the body some time to get back in sync, and this is mainly done through light cues to the central clock."- Simon Archer; quoted in MedPage Today.

   "These findings provide an explanation for a long-standing and mysterious observation, namely that people with chronically disturbed day-night cycles due to repetitive jet lag or shift work have a tendency to develop obesity and other metabolic complications.  Targeting the harmful changes in the microbiota in these large human populations with probiotic or antimicrobial therapies may reduce or even prevent their risk of developing obesity and its complications." - Eran Elinav, immunologist and microbiome specialist, Nancy and Stephen Grand Israel National Center for Personalized Medicine. Ibid.

   "Ongoing research is revealing the important relationship between the human and animal body and the colonizing microbes. A new concept worth considering is the importance of crosstalk between the circadian rhythms of the host and its resident microbiota. Experimental evidence suggests that maintenance of this mutualistic relationship appears to be important for host health. Since most tissues are subject to circadian rhythm regulation, it will be interesting to see what future host physiological processes are modulated by host-microbe circadian crosstalk. Due to its targetable nature through diet, pre- and probiotics and antibiotics, the circadian rhythmicity of the microbiome likely will reveal exciting findings that could influence clinical diagnostics, therapeutics, and transcontinental or space travel in the near future." - Gregor Reid et al., Canadian Centre for Human Microbiome and Probiotic Research, Lawson Health Research Institute, London, Ontario; quoted in the University of Toronto Medical Journal.

   "Foreign nations which attempt to illegally gather economic and other intelligence information through espionage pose a direct threat to US national security." - Assistant Attorney General (and SNS member) John Carlin, in a Department of Justice press release.

» China's Economy:
    Hedge Funds Turn to SNS' "Flow Economics" via Satellite

US hedge funds are choosing to ignore chronically inaccurate Chinese government economic figures. Instead, they are hiring private satellite companies to monitor industrial facility physical changes over time, in order to come to their own conclusions regarding industrial activity.

In this way, they can better measure the flow of industrial commerce, in much the same way that SNS uses the flow of commodities such as oil, steel, rebar, and power consumption over time as more accurate measures of economic change.

Here is a chart showing government figures for the Purchasing Managers' Index, those of the more conservative (and more accurate) Caixin Journal, and those derived by the US firm SpaceKnow in its Satellite Manufacturing Index, based on satellite photos:

Note that both SpaceKnow and Caixin are consistently below the more optimistic  Chinese government figures, and that both virtually agree at present on the 48.0 PMI level. This is a disastrous number, showing steep contraction of heavy industry.

» China Buys the US (Movie Theaters)

It is not hard to remember Japan at the peak of its InfoMercantilist splendor, as Tokyo real estate was priceless per square meter, hot chocolate was drunk with gold flakes, and Japanese investors came into the US market with cheap yen to buy prime assets like Rockefeller Center. Many thought the US was doomed; apparently not.

Now it's China's turn, but the story is radically different. The mother-ship economy is collapsing, the elites are fleeing, cash is flying out of the country, and even the government has jumped on board, encouraging the purchase of non-Chinese assets while the yuan drops like a drone hit by lighting.

Two questions come to mind, in light of Evan Anderson's terrific work in "Theft Nation" (see top of this issue) documenting the theft and fraud that made all of this money. First, is it "real" money? There are a number of reasons to say that it really is not - nor, therefore, will it hold value nor be a proper instrument for international trade (despite Christine Lagarde's shameful sellout behavior in espousing it). And second: Given China's collapse and a government-assisted program in taking over foreign assets in whole classes at once, shouldn't someone step up and say, No Thanks?

The full impact of this new and rather craven financial policy were front-and-center last week, as the government supplied near-infinite credit to government-owned and government-controlled entities so they could purchase … well, anything they wanted.

How about all of the US movie theaters? Then you can just censor the US citizenry on home soil. Pretty soon, moviegoers will all think China is a wonddddderful place, and not the nasty Communist country that censors people and jails lawyers for defending them.

In January, the Chinese firm Dalian Wanda bought Legendary Entertainment (Hollywood film studios) for $3.5B. No doubt it had plenty of cash available; it had put down about $50B to start China's own version of Hollywood in Qingdao in 2013. Legendary already had a deal with China Film Co., China's largest film company, to "co-produce movies." Think you'll be seeing anything truthful about China from Legendary? Not a chance before the purchase, and even less chance now.

How did Dalian come up with the earlier $50B? Well, it was probably just sitting around under the mattress, after the company's 2012 purchase of US (and Canadian) theater owner AMC for $2.6B, making it the second-largest theater owner in the US and the largest theater owner in the world.

No doubt all of this explains how Dalian could still have funds left over to buy the US Carmike theater chain this week, for about $1.1B, making it also now the largest theater owner in the US. Lucky for Dalian, this didn't exhaust its coffers so much that it would prevent it from also buying (in February) Swiss sports marketing group Infront, for about $1.1B. No doubt this will make infamous Seth Blatter's nephew Philippe Blatter, the CEO of Infront, rich. Not too surprisingly, Infront holds production rights to World Cup events, until recently controlled by his uncle.

And now, a few words of sanity.

First, for our Western friends who still think there is any connection between their ideas of fair, legal, and "business," and those same terms when applied to Communist China: Get over it.

Dalian Wanda prides itself in public as being a "private" company. There is no such thing in China. According to the entire Wanda Group (holding company) 2014 financial statement, income for that year was 25.1 billion yuan, currently valued at US$3.8B.

Back when this spending spree started, with revenues of about $11.6B in 2011, income (not obvious) was likely in the $2.5B range.

Now let's tot up the total spent on just the assets mentioned - which are a small share of all assets purchased by Dalian during this period. It looks like about $57.2B in the last four years - just in entertainment. (The company's core business is commercial real estate, and there are many other segments.)

So, first dividing the $2.5-$3.8B across all of the cash-hungry operating segments, let's say that entertainment is allocated an average of perhaps $1B per year - more than its proportional share, but the company is moving away from real estate and into this and other markets.

With $1B per year to play in the M&A game, it's just a bit hard to see how this "private" company was able to spend almost $60B in four years. Unless, of course, we find out that the Chinese government has provided essentially infinite credit lines to Dalian Wanda, far exceeding what any "real" bank (but hey, it's not a bank, it's the Communist Party) would consider.

Summary: The Chinese government now controls the majority of all movie theaters in the US. You sure wouldn't want to make any American movies saying - or even implying - anything bad about the Chinese, would you?

I mean, who in the US would show your movie? (See "Ethermail.")

And if you like that story, you'll love the next one:

» China Buys the US (Hotels)

When relatively unknown Chinese insurance company Anbang moved into the US market and bought the landmark Waldorf Astoria Hotel, after 10 years at the Waldorf SNS moved its annual New York Predictions Dinner to the Lotte New York Palace Hotel for security reasons (soon followed by President Obama, Secretary of State Kerry, and then the entire US government).

With 3.6% insurance market share in China, according to Bloomberg, one could ask how this move makes financial sense for Anbang - not to mention how, and why, it would buy the Waldorf for $1.95B. In any case, none of the people hoping to continue having secure conversations in its rooms waited around for an answer.

But it was a little more of a surprise when last week Anbang announced its next move, taking over Strategic Hotels and Resorts Inc., owner of the legendary Hotel del Coronado (original home of the SNS FiRe conference, 2003-2010), the Ritz Carlton Laguna Beach, the Ritz Carlton Half Moon Bay (Techonomy Tech Conference), the Montage Laguna Beach (FiRe 2012-2014, currently home of the Wall Street Journal "D" conference) - in other words, virtually every technology conference destination hotel on the US West Coast except the Terranea.

(Oh yeah, and the Essex House New York.)

Hey, they wouldn't bug the rooms, would they?

The deal was struck with Blackstone, which, strangely enough, had only owned this group for three months. Why would Blackstone do such a fast turnover? Ahh, that would require remembering that the Chinese government is a minority owner of Blackstone, having put $3B into it a few years ago, before the China Collapse. One can only surmise that Blackstone is happy to act as a false front for its Communist friends.

But time waits for no government policy, in China at least, so it was literally only a few days later that Anbang announced its next move, offering $12.8B for Starwood Hotels, which include the well-known brands Westin, Sheraton, "W," Le Meridien, St. Regis, the Luxury Collection, Design Hotels, Tribute, Aloft, Four Points, and Element Hotels.

It's only money, right? And after all, whose money is it?

Good luck finding out, from the world's most censored country. Here is an excerpt from a piece by the LA Times on Anbang:

Even by Chinese standards, Anbang seems to have had a meteoric rise, apparently aided by its connections to the corridors of Chinese power. Chinese media have attempted to publish reports on which prominent figures are involved with Anbang, but some of the reports have been taken offline shortly after being posted.

The publication Southern Weekend found that those involved with Anbang included Zhuo Ran, the granddaughter of former Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping; her husband, Wu Xiaohui, who is Anbang's chairman; Zhu Yunlai, son of former premier Zhu Rongji; and Chen Xiaolu, son of Communist Party revolutionary military commander Chen Yi.

Initially an insurer of cars and other property, Anbang started with about $75 million in assets in 2004. Now the firm says it has more than $250 billion in assets and 30,000 employees, including recruits from Harvard University, and 35 million clients. It provides a wide range of personal and business insurance, asset management, leasing and other services.

What a meteoric rise! I forgot to mention that, just before this spree, Anbang "acquired U.S. insurer Fidelity & Guaranty Life, Belgian insurer Fidea, Korean insurer Tongyang Life and Dutch insurer Vivat," according to the same article.

It's obvious that in both of these stories, the Chinese firm doing the acquisitions is using endless cash from the Communist Party, obtained in various ways (unlimited credit, subsidies, etc.). Meteoric growth comes from close ties to Party officials, who funnel these favors as an extension of Party Five -Year Plans. When Anbang or Dalian Wanda owns you, you are owned by the Standing Committee of the Communist Party of China - and don't you ever forget it.

Theater-goers, hotel visitors, and technology conference attendees will now have to pay attention to who is self-censoring their movies and who is listening during their late-night bar conversations about smartphones and chip design.

Thanks, CFIUS (Committee on Foreign Investment in the US). Keep up the good work. Maybe you should check next time to see what happens when a Western company tries to buy anything in China.

RE: "SNS: Microsoft: From Enterprise to Consumer to Enterprise" and

"SNS Special Alert: Behind Draghi's Panic: What's Next"

Subject: Fw: Outside the Box - The New Mind Control

Mark,

What do you think?

"The New Mind Control"

John Mauldin | Feb 26, 2016

In today's Outside the Box, Robert Epstein, a senior research psychologist at the American Institute for Behavioral Research and Technology in California and the former editor-in-chief of Psychology Today, warns us of a insidious and pervasive new form of mind control: search results.

That's right, search results. And not just any search results: Google search results. Since 2013 Epstein and colleagues have conducted a number of experiments in the US and India to determine whether search results can impact people's politicalopinions.

Epstein points out that about 50 percent of our clicks go to the top two items on the first page of results, and more than 90 percent of our clicks go to the 10 items listed. And of course Google, which dominates the search business, decides which of the billions of web pages to include in our search results, and it decides how to rank them.

But surely, Epstein thought, a top search result would have only a small impact on a person's political choices. Not so! To Epstein's surprise, in his initial experiment he found that the proportion of people favouring the (bogus, skewed) search engine's top-ranked candidate increased by more than 48 percent! [Italics by publisher]. Also, 75 percent of the subjects in the study were completely unaware that they were viewing biased search rankings.

He conducted several more experiments, including one that involved more than 2,000 people from all 50 US states. In that experiment, the shift in voting preferences induced by the researchers was 37 percent, and as high as 80 percent in some demographic groups.

Epstein was still skeptical. He asked,

Could voting preferences be shifted with real voters in the middle of a real campaign? ---

---So off his team went to India. --- On average, the researchers were able to shift the proportion of people favoring any given candidate by more than 20 percent overall and by more than 60 percent in some demographic groups. In addition, 99.5 percent of participants showed no awareness that they were viewing biased search rankings. ---

--Looking ahead to the November 2016 US presidential election, I see clear signs that Google is backing Hillary Clinton. In April 2015, Clinton hired Stephanie Hannon away from Google to be her chief technology officer and, a few months ago, Eric Schmidt, chairman of the holding company that controls Google, set up a semi-secret company - The Groundwork - for the specific purpose of putting Clinton in office. The formation of The Groundwork prompted Julian Assange, founder of WikiLeaks, to dub Google Clinton's "secret weapon" in her quest for the US presidency.

We now estimate that Hannon's old friends have the power to drive between 2.6 and 10.4 million votes to Clinton on election day with no one knowing that this is occurring and without leaving a paper trail. They can also help her win the nomination, of course, by influencing undecided voters during the primaries. Swing voters have always been the key to winning elections, and there has never been a more powerful, efficient or inexpensive way to sway them than SEME.

We are living in a world in which a handful of high-tech companies, sometimes working hand-in-hand with governments, are not only monitoring much of our activity, but are also invisibly controlling more and more of what we think, feel, do and say. The technology that now surrounds us is not just a harmless toy; it has also made possible undetectable and untraceable manipulations of entire populations - manipulations that have no precedent in human history and that are currently well beyond the scope of existing regulations and laws. The new hidden persuaders are bigger, bolder and badder than anything Vance Packard ever envisioned. If we choose to ignore this, we do so at our peril. - John Mauldin

And later:

Subject: More about the Argentine sinking of a Chinese fishing boat

BUENOS AIRES (Reuters) -- Argentina's coast guard has sunk a Chinese trawler that was fishing illegally within its territorial waters, the coast guard said on Tuesday, marking a first test for relations between President Mauricio Macri and Beijing.

     A coast guard vessel pursued the fishing vessel Lu Yan Yuan Yu 010 toward international waters in a high-seas chase on Monday, firing warning shots across the Chinese boat's bow as it attempted to raise the crew by radio.

     "On several occasions, the offending ship performed maneuvers designed to force a collision with the coast guard, putting at risk not only its own crew but coast guard personnel, who were then ordered to shoot parts of the vessel," the coast guard said in a statement.

     It was not clear if the vessel sank on Monday or Tuesday. The crew abandoned ship when the vessel began to go down.

     Four crewmen were rescued by the coast guard while others were picked up by another Chinese vessel shadowing the pursuit.

This is similar to what a Chinese "fishing" vessel did near Okinawa - ram a Japanese coast guard vessel then run for cover among other Chinese boats. In that case, they were "fishing" for information and trying to expand China's territorial waters.

The Chinese have been chased, arrested and shot at for illegal fishing in Japanese, South Korean, North Korean, Russian, Indonesian and other Southeast Asia waters. They are criminals from a society of unlimited greed.

Scott Foster

[Author of the new SNS FiReBook Stealth Japan

Partner, TAP Japan

SNS Ambassador for Asia Research

Tokyo]

Scott,

Welcome to Google (or Bing, or Siri, or -), the new Fox News (in terms of mass media vote-getting power). The Epstein study, mentioned above, concludes:

"The question of the role of search engines in elections seems a novel, and perhaps a dangerous one."

And as for Chinese illegal fishing, ramming, and/or building illegal islands in other countries' (and/or international) waters: it has to come to a stop. I'm very glad to see the Argentinians taking responsibility for their own waters. Now if Vietnam, the Philippines, Japan, and the United States would stop playing hide-and-seek and demand their domestic rights and international rights of passage, it would help.

One friend suggested last week that we fly a squadron of fighters over all of the fake islands at 100 feet or so. Good idea. How about every 20 minutes?

Thanks for raising these issues.

Mark Anderson

Mark,

Interesting piece; I can tell you, as long as companies have finance and accounting departments, and SAP and Oracle make cumbersome ERP systems, Office (namely, Excel) will always have demand; Google Sheets might be good for a rudimentary spreadsheet, but the ever growing complexity of offerings and the accounting related to it means more complex spreadsheets, using VBA to automate certain portions and give cost functions' head count a bit of rest.

I did have a question related to the following:

"Windows' phone market share is down from 2.8% WW at the end of 2014 to 1.1% at the end of 2015. Android has 80.7%, and no one (not Google nor Samsung nor Huawei nor ZTE, etc.) pays for it; Apple has 17.7%, everyone pays, and Apple is getting rich off the result."

Wouldn't the hardware makers be paying for it via licensing the Android OS to Microsoft? I believe if you look at past settlements and the licensing price for device, and the # of devices being sold, it adds up to yet another billion dollar business for Microsoft. 

I thought you had pointed that out a while back, but it might have been Geekwire.

Court Watson

[Deloitte Advisory

Accounting & Reporting Transformation

Deloitte & Touche LLP

Seattle, WA]

Court,

Agreed on both counts.

And yes, I did point out that Microsoft makes money on Android license sales.  But I don't consider it a strategy, just a weird consequence of having bought the Danger operation. 

On that note, I can't see how Google even has IP rights to Android, since it would seem Microsoft acquired all those rights when it acquired Danger, but - I'm not a lawyer.

Thanks for writing in,

Mark Anderson

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» Where's Mark?

* On March 31, Mark will be hosting the 2nd annual SNS Predictions : West event in Silicon Valley at the Rosewood Sand Hill Road hotel, with interview guests Mark Hurd, CEO of Oracle and Bill Ribaudo, National Managing Partner, Technology, Media & Telecommunications Industry, Deloitte & Touche LLP. Mark Hurd will be talking about "How Shifting Demographics Drives Technology Solutions"; Bill Ribaudo will be discussing an SNS project with Deloitte expertise on new models for re-valuing country GDPs, "Company and Country Business Models: Impact on Valuations, Measurement, and Worth." And Mark Anderson will be discussing his predictions for 2016 and the causes of and events following the China Collapse. Tickets are almost gone; take a moment and register here: www.stratnews.com/events/west.

In between times, he will be watching little kids running around picking up hidden Easter eggs in the sheep field, and hoping they are of the right type.

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