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***SNS*** Oil vs. Technology?
The FiRe Box:
“FiRe 2009: Shaping the Rebound: Technology Driving Economics”
“FiRe is my home, the place I come back to every year.” – Larry Brilliant, CEO, Google.org.
You’ve been watching Hewlett-Packard’s gravity-defying performance over the last few months, noticing that Chairman, President, and CEO Mark Hurd not surprisingly spends most of his time at work (and not at conferences), which explains these amazing numbers.
If you want to meet and hear Mark Hurd, perhaps the most successful technology CEO at work today, come to FiRe 2009.
What else will you find?
“The Battle Over Bandwidth Economics,” with Telstra CEO Sol Trujillo.
How “Cloud 2.0” will support corporations and consumers.
“Unleashing the Power of Dynamic Network Infrastructure,” an advanced look at the design and performance of next-generation Net infrastructure.
“Fixing Healthcare: Technology Following the Demographics.”
“Wireless Broadband: LTE, WiMAX, and Other Global 4G Alternatives,” with a separate look at NASA’s most advanced wireless broadband technology AND NASA’s WorldWind software.
“The (Real) Science Behind Today’s Alternative Energy Solutions.”
“The Best-Selling Computer of All Time: Next Design Steps for the CarryAlong/Netbook/Mini.”
On-the-ground application of new green energy technologies in Hawaii and China.
“1:1 Educational Computing” in new Inkwell pilot programs in Mexico, the U.S., and Africa: perhaps the greatest computer sales opportunity of the decade.
“Supervisualization and Global Conferencing, and New Views of Supercomputing,” a series of stunning demonstrations by Larry Smarr and the “FiRe Lab,” Calit2 at UCSD.
“Nuclear Energy Without Nuclear Proliferation: A New Design.”
“Many people concerned about the consequences of future climate change would find abundant reason for optimism, were they to witness the spirit of innovation and commitment to solve this problem that pervades the discussions at FiRe.” – James McCarthy, Leader of the Nobel-Winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and Professor of Oceanography, Harvard University.
Elon Musk will describe being the first private party to launch a rocket into orbit, bring us the newest version of the Tesla electric car, and update us on large SolarCity installations.
And much more.
Member Price Alert: Use “firecode 2009” when registering, and save the usual member discount of $300. Catch it now, before it slips away –
Date and Place: May 19-22, 2009, Hotel del Coronado, San Diego. Register here to join us for the best Future in Review yet:
» Oil Vs. Technology?
For those of you who were lucky, or unlucky, enough to have been in Davos for what remains of the World Economic Forum a couple of weeks ago, you were treated to a special, unadvertised performance. While most of the participants were in a dour mood, the leaders of Russia and China cheerfully reprimanded their capitalist friends for causing the global meltdown.
Just to show what a great guy he is, Bill Clinton was there to accept blame for the U.S., and did so.
It was a dressing-down that no one expected, and that few others of that worried gathering are likely to have taken well.
And, if SNS is correct, it was also wrong.
Here is the single IQ test that resolves this question: Did the real estate bubble and collapse also happen simultaneously in countries other than the U.S.? If the answer is Yes, then the U.S. was not responsible for this whole collapse. Answer: Smart internationalists know that the same story was played out in the U.K., Spain, France, and elsewhere.
What caused today’s troubles? Certainly, all the games that U.S. (and other global) traders and bankers played with global liquidity growth and the resulting asset bubbles were shameful. But who caused that growth, which led to those bubbles, which enabled the collapse of the house that Alan Greenspan built?
This is an ongoing detective story, which so far has two answers. First, we know the Japanese central bank caused it, by consciously allowing something like $1-3T to flow from stable to hot money offshore accounts, through its so-called carry trade. Why they did this, for the purposes of this discussion, doesn’t matter; they did it.
Over a short time, the world got a very large jolt of almost-free, very hot money.
The second source is equally interesting: oil price changes.
Was there really price manipulation? Absolutely. While SNS may have been the first to call the game “rigged,” both for Enron and for this most recent oil price run-up, all the experts are now on board, having seen how quickly prices declined on the downside.
As Daniel Yergin, author of The Prize, put it in a special Wall Street Journal supplement last week: “As oil approached the previously untouched $100 barrier in 2007 [Pub. Note: Crossing that barrier was first predicted here in SNS], other factors began to play a larger role. The impact of financial markets became more and more evident, with investors becoming increasingly active. --- The impact of speculation and hedging on the price was self-reinforcing, leading to more speculation and hedging.”
What Daniel either doesn’t know or doesn’t write about is the worst part of this story: the Trigger Theory – the increasing likelihood that physical sellers of oil were a part of this price speculation effort.
As proof that the media, and therefore the world, continues to live in ignorance of how the oil industry really works, I would offer a front-page business story that noted “increased inventory levels” of oil, even as the price “unexplainedly” went up 11% in a day.
When, exactly, will Congress (excepting Washington Sen. Maria Cantwell, who really does) get it, will the media get it, will the public get it? After they’ve been skinned five more times? Never?
Two weeks ago, sensing soft pricing, oil transhippers froze tanker traffic. They decided not to deliver on time, which converted the world’s tankers instantly into a huge new warehouse; it also allowed inventories on land to pile up. The result was immediate: cut off supply, prices rise – in this case, 11% in one day. That is called price manipulation, and the oil business is better at this than at finding new oil in the ground. And no, you won’t find this story anywhere else but here.
By running the price up from around $14 to over 10 times that amount, price manipulators seeking bloated profits achieved several unintended consequences, in addition to making money on options:
1. They destroyed (greatly slowed) the global economy, by imposing a mammoth across-the-board energy tax on all goods and services in the world.
2. They got rich. Exxon/Mobil continues to show record quarterly profits. The Saudis paid all their mammoth past bills and brought spending to a new level requiring higher prices.
In doing this, they transferred something like $3-6T from relatively stable investments into almost-free, hot money on the global market.
3. They gained power. Putin consolidated his personal power in Russia, using his oil-price muscle to further erode domestic freedoms and political processes while kicking Europe around over access to his natural gas, invading neighbor countries with potential pipeline roles, assassinating those abroad (and at home) who stood up to him, continuing to steal resource companies inside the state (get ready, Norilsk Nickel), and resurrecting traces of the Soviet Union with oil as the main hammer. Venezuela’s Chavez tried, with less success, to create an empire in South America, with himself as eternal president.
4. They created financial incentives for Silicon Valley to begin the investing program that would eventually replace oil with alternative energy sources in many markets.
It is this last consequence that we want to discuss today.
Inadvertently, the manipulators set the stage for the greatest rush of investment into alternative energy ever seen. Combined with investments like those of SNSer Vinod Khosla, already funding clean energy projects as a hedge against climate change requirements, you have a double impetus behind the greatest investment wave in venture capital on record.
By accident, we found oil and VCs on the same side.
Which brings us to our next SNS Pop Quiz:
Q. What are the Saudis most afraid of in the whole world?
1. Being attacked by the crazed Islamic fundamentalists they have been paying off for the last few decades.
2. Alcohol.
3. Women getting the vote.
4. Someone making a movie about their real global motives and dreams.
5. The replacement of oil with alternative energy sources.
A. Of course, the answer is (3). But since I can’t talk about that, I will say the answer is (5). And it is.
Now this is interesting, because it means that the Saudis’ pricing desires, and those of Exxon/Mobil, are not entirely in line. Or rather, they are until you hit the “Magic Saudi Price,” which is the price at which they can pay their always-increasing bills and yet hope to deprive Silicon Valley and the U.S. of the financial incentives necessary for switching to alternative energy sources.
If you doubt this, proof came this week as Saudi’s oil minister announced that the “best price” for Saudi Arabia was in the “$60-$80 range.” [See “Quotes” below.]
Some of you, recalling that oil lived at $40 not long ago (as it does today), may think that doubling this price over the course of a year or so is a little greedy. What you think, unfortunately, doesn’t matter, unless you’re funding electric car development.
Which brings us back again to technology. While the Saudis are now investing in solar, for a someday in the future when oil really runs out, they have no intention of foregoing all possible oil profits first.
A National Public Radio report on Wednesday suggested that most projects in solar and biofuels had been negatively impacted by current low prices. Members will remember our Special Letter by then–biofuels leader Martin Tobias, suggesting that major oil providers were driving up feedstock prices to eliminate biofuel companies as competition (SNS: Special Letter: Big Oil - 1; Renewable Fuels - 0, July 21, 2008).
One private equity expert from the Northwest, quoted in the NPR program, said that about one-third of his VC contacts are “frozen – paralyzed with fear.” That would mean, not investing in alternative energy sources, among other things.
And the Saudis are suddenly talking about pumping more oil, even as they meet to discuss oil reductions. The Saudis seem smarter about oil pricing than the Texans. (Of course, the Texans brought us Enron, the JFK assassination, and under-the-table federal political control for 30-50 years.)
With OPEC meeting again in a month, the Saudis turning moderate, the Texans getting ready to “juice the machine” again, and Silicon Valley trying to move ahead on its investments, the battle is joined.
Is it possible that Big Oil will, accidentally, help Silicon Valley? I think so.
Will the Saudis, using OPEC, try to prevent it? I think so.
In which case, the problem isn’t really Oil vs. Technology at all, but the Saudis vs. the Texans, with the VCs and their companies – and the planet’s welfare – in the middle of the fight.
Won’t ExxonMobil, when it realizes what it’s doing, come back and whack the alternative energy companies, just as Martin’s company got whacked, totally in line with its habit of paying $5-10MM/year for fake science denying global warming?
Yes, it will. It wants its crazy profits, and it wants no threats at the same time. People who read this, and really understand it, will keep watch for its every move, as it works to jack up prices while creating Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt about global warming, alternative energies, and anything related to them.
This IQ test has planetary stakes.
Your comments are always welcome. Sincerely,
» Cutting Submarine Cables: The Next Act of War?
It seems only natural that, as the world lays more and more miles of submarine cables – and comes to depend more upon them for financial, communications, and Net connectivity – we would have more cables breaking, and more news coverage of same.
Well, that’s one way of looking at it. I’m not buying.
Let’s take a quick look at cable cuts with major national impacts over the last year or two.
Does anyone out there still think this is random? Some low-bar PR twit has suggested the obvious cover story that these are all caused by a dragged ship anchor. Did you buy that one, too?
Since the early 2008 events, one team (FLAG) found a ship anchor near a cut, while the Egyptian government claims that 24/7 video of the area revealed no ships near the cuts within 12 hours on either side of the events.
My friend John Dvorak at MarketWatch apparently has suggested that the CIA is responsible for at least some of these, in an attempt to shake confidence in the new Iranian petroleum-trading bourse (a market for oil in euros, vs. dollars) being set up nearby at Kish Island. But there appears to have been little or no disruption of this specific traffic, throwing a bit of doubt on this theory.
And then came the events of December, 2008, described here by the BBC:
“The main damage is to the four submarine cables running across the Mediterranean and through the Suez Canal.
“It is thought that 65% of traffic to India was down, while services to Singapore, Malaysia, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Taiwan, and Pakistan have also been severely affected.
“Earlier this year, the same line was damaged in the same area – off the Egyptian coast – although only two lines were snapped then.
“ ‘We’ve lost three out of four lines. If the fourth cable breaks, we’re looking at a total blackout in the Middle East,’ said Jonathan Wright, director of wholesale products at Interoute, which manages part of the optical fiber network that was cut.”
Which leaves us with these questions:
Whose submarines are actively cutting Middle East (and perhaps Taiwanese) submarine cables? Why isn’t anyone writing about this?
In an era when being connected is a primary military, security, and economic requirement, is this a new form of war? If so, who is fighting in it, and how?
» Android Escapes
There are various theories about this one, including that Google always intended Android to be a full-on personal computer operating system and just didn’t want to raise Microsoft’s full-on defense radars until it was too late.
Whatever the deep truth here, Android was an open-source telephone OS available only through T-Mobile via its G1 phone (HTC).
Coming at the same time as news that hackers have put Android onto a Linux OS PC, after only a few hours of work, one comes to the rather obvious conclusion that this phone OS is not really a phone OS, but the next contender for multi-platform OS, which is the client race of today for all OS entrants, from Windows to Mac OS X.
The ARCHOS hardware entry is interesting for its intermediate size characteristics, smaller than a CarryAlongPC but larger than a phone, with complete communications and entertainment (multimedia) capabilities built into a tablet package. The size: a 5-inch touch screen, 0.39 inches thick.
The tablet has full video and audio codecs, runs on a Texas Instruments OMAP 3440 processor “based on the ARM Cortex microprocessor” (Techweb), connecting via WiFi or 3G. The unit comes with a full-on browser with Flash and Flash video, with up to 500GB of storage and 7-hour video playback per charge from the batteries. This unit comes out in Q3 of 2009.
Summary: Expect to see four new rabbits out of the hat this year:
1. Android moving into PCs, notebooks, laptops, CarryAlong/netbooks, etc.;
2. ARM aggressively moving into mid-size devices;
3. TI doing the same; and
4. A new device tablet size introduced, with larger screen real estate for video and games, but smaller than CarryAlongs (7 x 9 inches).
Just when things were getting boring, they are getting interesting.
» More on Voice: IA Technology and the Zumba Phone?
Heresford, U.K. According to the BBC and the Register, and several other sources in Britain, a company that has done most of its work in secret for the defense industry has just announced a new phone that promises to be the “world’s first fully accurate voice recognition phone.”
The device, about the size of a credit card, contains a separable, flat, ear-contoured earpiece. After all the Bluetooth earpieces we’ve all seen, this one is striking because, although rather large, its flatness makes it almost disappear against the head. Some Web wags claim the flatness comes from the possibility that, in lieu of a real demo, it is just a piece of cardboard.
Zumba Ltd CEO Dean McEvoy, the apparent inventor of this four-year-old project, appeared last week on a BBC Midlands piece and explained his own frustration at being dyslexic, and his satisfaction in using the unit to text just by saying the letters and having them read back to him. The unit is not slated for sale until the end of this year, but all indications are that it is a low-cost design, with few other features. It strikes me that, if this is true, IA has gotten it exactly right, perhaps by accident: phones ought to be low-cost, as all of their features are subsumed into a voice-driven Net portal.
IA Technology has such a portal (appropriately called Zumba Lumba), which the defense firm claims is secure and not hackable (unlike, one reckons, the Pentagon).
This whole announcement is interesting because:
1. It is the right device at the right time. While some complainants are suggesting that others have tried to build it, or something like it, I want to disagree: its simplicity is its best quality. Transferring all attributes to the server farm is as brilliant as the Samsung/Apple move of presenting the user with a black blank shiny interface.
2. It may not be real. If it is a sham, it further underlines what the world and market are expecting. Is it more important as a real product, or as a suggestion? Of course, I hope it turns out, against all of the possible non-demo hoax possibilities, to be real. But if it isn’t: how many weeks would it take Nokia or RIM to put vlingo on a stripped-down phone and focus on the back-end services?
3. If unreal, IA fooled the BBC – big time.
Summary: The real lesson in this exercise is not in what it is, but in where it is pointing.
Members will recall the “Top Ten” SNS Prediction that 2009 would see the first non-frustrating phone-based voice recognition systems. While vlingo and Nuance continue to both tussle and make inroads, I look forward to seeing additional phones with advanced voice technology – and real demos – in the coming months.
SNS TakeOut Window
Is it the End of Days, or the Age of Aquarius? It’s a little tough to call, but something has to be up when the Woz is competing in Dancing with the Stars –
http://abc.go.com/primetime/dancingwiththestars/index?pn=about
__ The unusual new Zumba phone (see “Upgrades”):
Together with its integrated, separable earpiece:
Black for the exec crowd:
__
A second subsea cable to Malta is currently being laid, in response to the cable cutting in December.
Quotes of the Week
“Those who presided over the last eight years – the eight years that brought us to the point where we inherit trillions of dollars of deficit, an economy that’s collapsing more rapidly than at any time in the last 50 years – don’t seem to me in a strong position to lecture about the lessons of history.” Larry Summers, Director of the National Economic Council, put it best on a Sunday morning opinion show last week; regarding the current stimulus plan.
“Instead of catalyzing recovery, the financial system is working against recovery. And at the same time, the recession is putting greater pressure on banks. This is a dangerous dynamic, and we need to arrest it. It is essential for every American to understand that the battle for economic recovery must be fought on two fronts. We have to both jumpstart job creation and private investment, and we must get credit flowing again to businesses and families.
“Without a powerful Economic Recovery Act, too many Americans will lose their jobs and too many businesses will fail. And unless we restore the flow of credit, the recession will be deeper and longer, causing even more damage to families and businesses across the country.
“Today, as Congress moves to pass an economic recovery plan that will help create jobs and lay a foundation for stronger economic future, we are outlining a new Financial Stability Plan.” U.S. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner, in first comments to the nation as Secretary, Tuesday morning.
“What impressed me most with this situation is that the local fishermen played a major role in preventing the mass group from getting on the beach compared to the past, when they have killed the dolphins for food. Through education and cooperation efforts, they worked very hard to push them back into the wild.” Malcolm Sarmiento, director of the Philippines’ Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources, on saving 200 dolphins from self-beaching near the townships of Pilar and Orion in Bataan province, Tuesday.
“This will grind economies to a halt for a short space of time. If you look at, say, local financial markets who trade with European and U.S. markets, the speed at which they get live data will be compromised. If you think how quickly trades can be placed, if they are suffering from bad latency times, then by the time a trade is placed, the market may well have moved on.
“We’ve lost three out of four lines. If the fourth cable breaks, we’re looking at a total blackout in the Middle East. These three circuits account for 90% of the traffic and we’re going to see more international phone calls dropping and a huge degradation in the quality of local Internet. Normally you would expect to see one major break per cable per year. With four you should have an insurance policy. For this to happen twice in one year, on the same cable, is a serious cause for concern.” Jonathan Wright, director of wholesale products at Interoute, which manages part of the optical fiber network that was again cut in December.
“The causes of the cut, which is located in the Mediterranean between Sicily and Tunisia, on sections linking Sicily to Egypt, remain unclear.” A France Telecom spokesperson, in a statement released in relation to one of the breaks.
“Thus, what the Saudis want is the highest possible price.” Stratfor.com, last June.
See, even Stratfor gets it wrong, and does not understand oil pricing.
“There is no doubt in my mind that increased speculative interest in oil contributed to the extreme price volatility of the past few years. --- [Climate change] will have an even more profound impact on redefining the role of governments and government intervention in energy markets. --- We must also be mindful that efforts to rapidly promote alternatives could have a chilling effect on investment in the oil sector.” Minister of Petroleum Ali al-Naimi, addressing the Cambridge Energy Research Associates conference in Dallas this week. Al-Naimi also noted that Saudi Arabia will boost its spare production capacity to 4.5 million barrels a day by midyear to help stabilize markets. And that is where the Saudis and the Texans split ways.
Re: SNS: Integrating Forward
Mark,
In the current economy, I would expect even winners like Apple and HP to be very sensitive to customer satisfaction.
I just discovered to my dismay, however, that this appears not to be the case for Apple, or HP.
I just bought an “Apple In-Ear Headphones with Remote and Mic” a few weeks ago, for $80. Yesterday, I lost one of the plastic earpieces that snap on top of the headphones so they fit in your ear.
I called the local store, where I bought the headset, and the AppleCare 800 number, but no joy at either location; they basically said the answer is for me to buy a new headset.
As to HP – I bought a new laptop of theirs in July 2007. By early 2008, its battery had failed. Just in the nick of time, I called them in late July 2007, and they (to my delight) replaced the battery. The new battery also failed, within two months. I only made time to call them in December 2008, 110 days after they sent me the replacement battery. Now, trouble! Basically, they wanted me to pay $180 for a replacement battery, or, “because I was a loyal customer,” they offered to sell me a new computer for about $500.
I didn’t want a new computer. (I spent hours downgrading from the Vista it shipped with to the Windows XP that I preferred.) I wanted a replacement battery. They escalated, but no help was available. Eventually, their answer was: “call HP headquarters in Palo Alto.” I have not done that yet, but am considering crossing the street to visit them and ask for Mark Hurd’s office.
I welcome your thoughts on both; hope all is well.
Best,
Martin Haeberli [One of the original Mac designers Palo Alto, CA]
Martin,
Apple has a rep on this, and your experience is no surprise. Although it has come a ways forward with its “genius bars” at local company-owned stores, that’s about it: regular customer service at Apple has usually been quite awful.
Somehow, this has always been a good fit with the CEO’s personality: Steve Jobs loves products, but seems to be cut off from people.
I know, as a past co-designer of the Mac, that you are familiar with this; perhaps other readers are not.
As for HP: I think it did right by you. The real complaint you have, if any, with HP, is that it didn’t go beyond the rule and surprise and delight you. In my experience, that is more than one should expect from most companies.
I will say, in HP’s favor, that I once complained about the paper-handling abilities of its printers, and received a new one just days later, apparently shipped direct from Singapore.
So, I’d consider the second battery a fulfillment of the original warranty, and go forward with HP; buy another battery, and make sure the new one has a warranty you want.
Second, harass the xxxx out of Apple, since it should improve its service. This is like battery failures for early iPods, etc. The basic attitude seems to be to define a customer as a sales-transaction-only partner. If you aren’t buying, it isn’t helping.
What if Apple put a serious effort into service? It would change the company.
Mark Anderson
Mark,
I want to thank you. I’ve been a subscriber of your newsletter on and off for a number of years when I can afford it. I’m not in the communication or technology field, but a golf course green keeper. I regularly visit your blog, not necessarily for technology information, which I find interesting, but for your insight, and those of your readers on some current social and political observations.
I find it difficult to know who or what to believe these days, and want you to know that I have come to trust your views and honesty. I appreciate your daily digest of articles, because it takes me to information and subjects that I probably couldn’t find on my own. Mr. Ballmer’s speech to the Democrats is a perfect example.
Thanks Again.
Tom McCarthy [Inglenook Golf Course Seattle]
Tom,
Your letter made my week. For those who have not taken a look, I have posted this speech by SNS Member Steve Ballmer on our website –
– and it is there for all to read and comment upon. I happen to think that Steve did an unusually good job of laying out, not the shiny and new, but what needs to be done now, by the U.S., to keep the wheels on.
Thank you again, Tom, for taking the time to write. Now about that handicap ---
Mark Anderson
Mark,
Thanks again for including me on the FiRe advisory board, I had a blast in Seattle and greatly enjoyed our meetings. Thought you would like the Intel announcement that they are putting $7Billion into expanded domestic facilities and R&D. Perhaps this is the future where we take back ownership of our IP from Asia (from your last newsletter)?
Michael Pfeffer Managing Partner Kolohala Ventures [Honolulu, HI]
Michael,
It is a great pleasure to have you with us, and we look forward to having your business experience as part of our planning toolkit. We know you came a long way to be with us, and we also look forward to sharing an increasing amount of the technology success stories being achieved in the islands. Your positioning at Asia’s door will no doubt, as with Australia, keep Hawaii in a fascinating geo-economic position during the next decade.
As for Intel, Hats Off! one wants to yell. While I don’t doubt for a moment that this U.S.-based fabs expansion and buildout, together with 7,000 new jobs, was part of its long-term plan, other companies might have postponed the investment.
To that end, Intel is proving both that it is smart (moving when costs are cheap and competitors are intimidated) and that it recognizes the PR value of the move.
Chip companies, in general, are more used to how to behave during cycles than others are; for better or for worse, their sector is extremely cyclic. Long ago, it became clear that the companies able to invest and build out during the lull would make more money when the sun again shone.
This seems counter-intuitive for companies that are from “straight-line” sectors (software, PCs), but Intel is right. For companies in either kind of sector, when the world goes through a down cycle, the smart ones will be those who could grow during the down cycle.
CEO Paul Otellini gets full credit for seeing the right move, and taking it.
Mark Anderson
» Upcoming SNS Events
Our highest appreciation to The Rodel Foundations, returning as the Thunderbird Internship Sponsors of FiRe 2009:
Many thanks to Deloitte LLP as a Primary Sponsor of FiRe 2009:
Sincere thanks to Qualcomm as a Special Events Sponsor for FiRe 2009:
Thank you to Cisco
Thank you to Infoblox
Sincere thanks to Lux for its Media Sponsorship of FiRe 2009:
For inquiries about SNS Events and/or Sponsorship opportunities, please contact Sharon Anderson-Morris (“SAM”), SNS Programs Director, at sam@tapsns.com or 435-649-3645.
» SNS Media
A new library for a new year: here are your favorite books, including who has proposed them, whether they’re fiction or nonfiction, and ready clicks to Amazon:
http://www.tapsns.com/members/books.php
“SNS iNews is a terrific idea.” – Peter Petre, Author and Past Sr. Editor, FORTUNE magazine
Are you an AORTA (Always On RealTime Access) member of SNS? Use SNS iNews™ to stay in touch, in real time, with what your fellow members and FiRe Thought Leaders are achieving – and then help them get there.
Click here for the current iNews digest: www.snsinews.com
(For ID and password assistance, email lynne@stratnews.com)
Hear Mark’s Top Ten Predictions for 2009: http://www.tapsns.com/media/nydinner2008/nydinner2008-predictions.mp3
Executive Postings
SNS members are encouraged to share postings that would be of interest to fellow members. This might include vacation rentals, job postings, jobs sought, business opportunities, funds needed for startups or expansion (no priced solicitations), and other categories. There is currently no charge for posting, and we reserve the right to veto offerings deemed unsuitable. We hope this will afford members yet another way of communicating and benefiting from their membership.
– mra.
For Rent: Old City Barcelona Apartment
I would be delighted to offer our small one-bedroom apartment in the heart of Barcelona’s old city to fellow SNSers, should they come to this great city.
SNS Member Discount Pricing: 80 euros/night plus 40 euros final cleaning charge
For Rent: Luxury Home, Winter Wonderland
Enjoy 7,000 ft. altitude “Wow!” views from this Winter Wonderland Luxury Home for rent in Park City, Utah.
$600/night prior to the Sundance Film Festival (January 15th-25th) $1000/night during the Sundance Film Festival
» New Members’ Welcome
I would like to welcome, among others, these new members to the SNS family: Hans Werner, CEO, Radar Group International, Varmdo, Sweden; Ben Lewis, Head of Strategy, Thomson Reuters, Stamford, CT; David Craig, Chief Strategy Officer, Thomson Reuters, Stamford, CT; Nancy Fabozzi, Manager, Market Intelligence, Thomson Reuters, Stamford, CT; Lucinda Stewart, Partner, OVP Venture Partners, Kirkland, WA; and many more.
If you are a Premium SNS Member, you now get:
Direct email privileges enabling you to contact Thought Leaders via SNS iNews™ stories
Automatic inclusion in the SNS iNews Thought Leader Pool: FREE global news distribution to thought leaders worldwide whenever you appear in any press or blog story
Searchable access to the Archives of past SNS issues
Invitation to a complimentary Premium Member Breakfast with Mark at FiRe 2009
Other privileged Premium website content, and
Free posting privileges on the brand-new (about to be announced) SNS Business Board
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RENEWALS: Your one-year Standard subscription to SNS continues at the current rate of $595, which includes approximately 48 issues per year, plus special industry alerts and related materials. Two years: $995. Premium subscriptions, which include passworded access to additional materials on the SNS website, enhanced access to SNS iNews features, and other benefits: $895 per year. Subscriptions can be purchased, upgraded, or renewed at our secure website, at: www.stratnews.com. Or you can call Lynne Mercer at 360-378-1023 for personal assistance with your subscription. Conversion of your trial to full subscription will lead to 13 months of SNS, no matter when you convert.
This service is intended for strategic thinkers who depend upon business technology planning. The SNS charter is to provide information about critical computer and telecommunications issues, trends, and events not available to managers through the press. Re-purposing of this material is encouraged, with proper attribution.
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» About the Strategic News Service
SNS is the most accurate predictive letter covering the computer and telecom industries. It is personally read by the top managers at companies such as Intel, Microsoft, Dell, HP, Cisco, Sun, Google, Yahoo!, Ericsson, Telstra, and China Mobile, as well as by leading financial analysts at the world’s top investment banks and venture capital funds, including Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch, Kleiner Perkins, Venrock, Warburg Pincus, and 3i. It is regularly quoted in top industry publications such as BusinessWeek, WIRED, Barron’s, Fortune, PC Magazine, ZDNet, Business 2.0, the Financial Times, the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, and elsewhere.
Email sent to SNS may be reprinted, unless you indicate that it is not to be.
» About the Publisher
Mark Anderson is CEO of the Strategic News Service™. He is the founder of two software companies and of the Washington Software Alliance Investors’ Forum, Washington’s premier software investment conference; and has participated in the launch of many software startups. He regularly appears on the CNN World News, CNBC and CNBC Europe, Reuters TV, the BBC, “Wall Street Review”/KSDO, and National Public Radio programs. He is a member of the Merrill Lynch Technology Advisory Board, and is an advisor and/or investor in OVP, Ignition Partners, Mohr Davidow Ventures, Voyager Capital, and others. » SNS Website Links
For additional predictions and information, please visit:
SNS Blog, “A Bright Fire”: www.abrightfire.com
SNS Media Page: www.tapsns.com/media.php
SNS Future in Review (FiRe) Conference website: www.futureinreview.com
SNS FiRe 2008 Photo Gallery: http://futureinreview.smugmug.com/FiRe%202008
FiRe TV on YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/futureinreview
SNS Project Inkwell: www.projectinkwell.com __
» Where’s Mark?
On February 13th-16th, Mark will be participating in the Aspen Institute Socrates Society series on “Whither Innovation: Can we be this shortsighted and succeed?” led by Judith Estrin. On March 26th-27th, he will be keynoting a special guest CEO meeting hosted by Orange Wireless in London. On March 31st, he will keynote the 2009 CRIM (Centre de recherche informatique de Montral) Crystal Ball Conference, at the Palais de Congres de Montral, on the subject “Combining Economic Landscape with Technology Trends: Shaping the Rebound.” On April 27th, he will be the opening keynote speaker for the 2009 Accenture International Utilities and Energy Conference, talking on “A Future View of Energy: Technology Driving Economics,” at the Hotel Regency Vancouver, in Vancouver, B.C. And on April 29th, he will be speaking at the Family Office Circle 2009 conference, at the Hotel “Europischer Hof,” in Heidelberg, Germany, on the subject “Root Causes of the Economic Collapse, and How the Obama Program Will Affect U.S. and Global Economics.” On May 19th-22nd, he will be hosting Future in Review 2009, at the Hotel del Coronado, San Diego.
In between times, he will be playing djembe drums for the best blues band in the Northwest, on his way back to visit his friends, the mountains of Colorado, and his friends in the mountains of Colorado.
Copyright 2009, Strategic News Service LLC.
“Strategic News Service,” “SNS,” “Future in Review,” “FiRe,” “SNS Ahead of the Curve,” and “SNS Project Inkwell” are all registered service marks of Strategic News Service LLC.
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