 | 100% RENEWABLE, Part 2: The Road Ahead By Berit Anderson & Robert McClure Why Read: This week, we continue our deep dive on the most essential and most convoluted tech ecosystem in the US - the electrical grid - and share a unique vision for transformation that will drive investment and economic growth and create a platform for entrepreneurialism. A Note to Our Members We are deeply grateful for the advice and expertise that many of you have already provided in supporting our understanding of this most essential of industries - and to those who are already doing the technical, entrepreneurial, and strategic work necessary to advance this transition. We would also like to thank our partners in this effort for lending their experience, networks, and visions for the future of the US grid:
The full 100% Renewable Action Plan will be released publicly in the coming weeks, but we wanted you, as SNS members, to be the first to review it. We would very much appreciate your feedback, ideas, and thoughts on this week's Global Report (and on Part I, published in our previous issue). Building the future is a collaborative exercise. And you are all fantastic collaborators.
"We know there's an ample portfolio of suitable technologies at reasonable cost to do the job. But that's all we need to know. An embarrassing diversity of workable options is not a showstopper. It's just a happy preparation for learning by doing. "So we should suspend disbelief, stop arguing, speed building and go wandering into the wilderness together and find out." - Amory Lovins, Founder, Rocky Mountain Institute; The biggest and most important constraint facing our transition to 100% renewable energy is time. We have less than 30 years to make the US transition to 100% renewable energy. And not only do we need to transition our current energy supply - we also need to increase our capability to generate energy overall by 2-3x in order to meet the demand expected from electrifying transportation, manufacturing, construction, and shipping. If we follow the existing process - gaining the necessary rights-of-way, building transmission lines, securing permits for centralized renewables, and constructing wind and solar farms - we will not meet the goal of a 50% renewable-energy supply by 2030. Typical rollout time for electric-line projects necessary to transmit power from as-yet-unbuilt solar and wind farms is approximately 10 years. We have only eight years to reach the interim 50% goal. Adding to urgency is the fact that, in the last 10 years, only four out of five centralized renewable projects planned for the Western US were actually completed. The rest fell victim to permitting, routing, and other regulatory hurdles. Even if we somehow manage to triple our current centralized renewable-energy capabilities by 2050, that only gets us halfway. We would also then need to develop 3x the transmission infrastructure, substations, and distribution infrastructure to deliver that energy - another extremely expensive and time-intensive process. By definition, a huge percentage of the improvement in the next few years must emanate from something other than the current centralized approach. We need to get creative about building an energy system that contributes to the long-term safety, health, and wellbeing of our children and grandchildren. The steps outlined below draw on the experience of leaders in renewable energy from around the world and their advice for getting the US to a 100% renewable grid on time.
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